LTD Possible Scenarios

Sitting on key support level at 44.00, while there could be a bounce here as it is sitting on recent support, there is a chance that the support fails to hold. If the 44.00 support level is compromised, strong support comes in at 40.00 and is backed up by a long standing trendline going back to the 2009 lows. While I am bullish LTD based on these two trendlines (in teal and black), there is a potential topping pattern that if confirmed would point to a further retracement down to the $27 area. I'd like to take half a position long at 44.00, layer into another half at 44.00, with a stop at 37.50. Target is at $77.00, just ahead of 1.618 extension. If 37.50 is reached on the downside, I'll reevaluate and look for a potential short entry.