Stock Market at Important Juncture

25 mag 2015

The S&P500 is at an important point in time. This excellent chart from YaKa shows how the market is now at a meaningful long-term inflection point after a 7.5 year run. Normally this would be convincing, but this market cycle is different and thus the last run cannot be used for precise comparison. This market is not expensive enough at a point in the economic cycle that still has the higher-growth cyclical period ahead of it. Much of the development of a good cyclical phase will be determined by economic growth from here. We have recently seen better jobs numbers. If this can continue and start to show meaningful wage growth, then this market will have the final, powerful last up leg that has yet to happen. And if we don't get the strong jobs and other economic data, the Fed wont raise rates and the market will rally. While I expect this chart to create some turbulence in near-term prices, I expect short-term weakness to continue to be purchased aggressively as the economy strengthens.