Interesting P.A on the Swissy!
The USD/CHF shredded over 100 pips of value throughout last week’s session winding up closing the week at 0.9817. This move, as you can probably see from the weekly chart engulfed two prior weekly candles, firmly placing the trendline support back in view (0.9071) which has capped downside movement since May 2015. Further increasing the chances that this weekly trendline will see action this week is the fact that price closed below support (now acting resistance) at 0.9822 on the daily chart.
This is where things get a little more interesting… Across on the H4 chart, it is quite clear to see that price retested the underside of the recently broken daily support level at 0.9822 and ended the week printing an indecision candle. Now, assuming that the daily level holds as resistance and we see a push below the 0.9800 figure this week, the H4 demand area at 0.9749-0.9781 will be the next hurdle in view. Not only does this zone fuse with a 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.9754, but it’s also bolstered by the weekly trendline we already discussed above thus forming a very nice buy zone to keep a tab on this week. For anyone who is familiar with trendlines, however, you will likely agree that even though they are effective at predicting turning points, they are unfortunately prone to some very nasty fakeouts. As such, once or indeed if price reaches the aforementioned H4 demand zone this week, we will only consider this a viable buy zone should lower timeframe buying strength be seen (see at the very top of this page how we like to look for this).
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 0.9749-0.9781 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
This is where things get a little more interesting… Across on the H4 chart, it is quite clear to see that price retested the underside of the recently broken daily support level at 0.9822 and ended the week printing an indecision candle. Now, assuming that the daily level holds as resistance and we see a push below the 0.9800 figure this week, the H4 demand area at 0.9749-0.9781 will be the next hurdle in view. Not only does this zone fuse with a 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.9754, but it’s also bolstered by the weekly trendline we already discussed above thus forming a very nice buy zone to keep a tab on this week. For anyone who is familiar with trendlines, however, you will likely agree that even though they are effective at predicting turning points, they are unfortunately prone to some very nasty fakeouts. As such, once or indeed if price reaches the aforementioned H4 demand zone this week, we will only consider this a viable buy zone should lower timeframe buying strength be seen (see at the very top of this page how we like to look for this).
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 0.9749-0.9781 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
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