The last one

17 nov 2023

First, this stock is a total disaster for every retail holder, including myself. Secondly, this stock is unpredictable since as it seems to my eyes VCs control the game and can do whatever they want... burn it to 0, sell it for $5,$10,$20 etc... or raise capital and dilute. Here are some points to consider though:

1. Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern target $59 +-$1 more on the pattern here (tradingview.com/chart/SPX/h4f5qQyN-DESCENDING-BROADENING-WEDGE/)
2. Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern target $59 +-$1 more on the pattern here (tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000690666-chart-pattern-inverse-head-and-shoulders/)
3. 0.236% Fib Retracement since gap down after wsb pump 2021 at $58.55
4. Russel Rebalancing prior to ex-CEO + founder removal at $58.50
5. Citron last tweet mentioning wish worth $50? (do not take into account this one but just for the sake of the conversation)

Some things in favor of an upward move:
1)FED pause = peak rates = expecting cuts heading into 2024 and beyond
2)Inflation for now is behind us and might be heading to deflation
3)Small caps momentum (wish will get inflows from funds following Russell3000)
4)10y% down = risk on
5)Oil down = more disposable income = increase discretionary spending
6)Heading into US elections, historically a positive year for markets
7)What about China's comeback into the 2024 year of the Dragon?
8)DXY down positively correlated to US stocks going up

Wish turnaround checklist
1)Bad Merchants cleared and quality improved ✓
2)NPS improved (flat rate shipping, faster shipping, lower refund rates, better quality products,more pick up points,better customer support)✓
3)Operational Excellence (fired 2/3, hiring lower cost employees in China) ✓
4)App improved ✓
5)New Website (pending...)
6)New merchant commission structure coming into 2024 ✓


$59 = 1357m valuation
Expected Sales 2024 = 200m... I think the bar here is very low but since they control Ad spending which is highly correlated with revenue the sales number is not that predictable ( i can't be in their head on what they are planning to do)
Cash on hand 445m as of Q3 and going to burn another 50-60m on Q4 so cash at the end of the year should be standing at 385m
2024 cash burn should be 40m less than the previous year due to layoffs so 10m/Q less. If sales number is 200 as projected meaning -30% than 2023 then i would expect total cash burn to be -30% as well = 25-35m / Q leaving wish with approximately 250m +-20 at the end of 2024. But those are all assumption in my head but the big picture says wish 2024 EoY cash to be standing above 200m! which means they will have to take a decision on what they are gonna do in 2025
1)sell it
2)raise money dilution

And something to consider about the Forest not the Tree! Temu success is a proof that wish got the idea right from the beginning but bad management execution failed this company! For me that means that wish business model = mobile low cost e-commerce targeting West shifting downward middle class + Rest of the world shifting upward class(formation of new middle class) is right BUT what can happen to this stock i do not know anymore. All i can do is wait...