GOLD - What do we have next?

17 apr 2017

My bias is neutral or slightly bearish for the short term. Usually any inversion or a continuation patterns takes some time to develop. So, in the attached chart we can see some confluences in the price action that invite to the following reasoning:

1. Red dot line at $1300 suggests a significant resistance, needed to be broken for the price to reach $1350.
2. Today's candle suggests at least one pause on the rally.
3. Only a very strong trigger can convince market participants to break the $1300 red dot line, such as military conflict with North Korea. We may be wrong, but this does not seem likely.
4. Developing this idea may lead to a short-term correction, down to the green dot line at $1260, or so.
5. As a technical movement, new longs can arise at this level of $ 1260, pushing until ~$1300.
6. The test of this level will probably be decisive. Will the resistance be broken or a double top be formed?
7. Given the hyper-reactivity of gold in the face of geopolitical events, we do not dare to do so much futurology.
8. A short position for swing trading can be taken now, having $1260 as a goal, stop loss at bit above $1300, for an interesting R/R take.

26 apr 2017

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Stand aside, for now.