Gold 13, March 2017: Bias long for 1300

12 mar 2017

Please check my previous trade idea where I was short and tracking the bear move off 1263. (tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/wCGV0R27-Gold-3-March-2017-Correctional-short-then-long/) - which now leads to this idea for a potentially rewarding long. As long as the channel holds, the current pattern indicates an upside bias of either 1-2-3-4-5 on a larger degree or as ABC.

For a bearish case I don't have a reason to take positional shorts yet except in 2 scenarios:
a) If Gold daily closes firmly below 1199, there is a sure short for mid-1170s.
b) If Gold rallies from current levels and gets stuck at mid 1240s there is a case for another impulse move down.

13 mar 2017

Nota

There's another marker I'm looking for that could tilt the odds of a bullish reversal here..I'm looking for this local rally to hit at least 1213-14. Gold have only travelled $16 off 1195 which may not be sufficient.

13 mar 2017

Nota

I'm looking to add longs at the gray circle level.

14 mar 2017

Nota

The red line longs can get productive once the trend line breaks and retest. If not then we should prepare for next lvl of 1198.

14 mar 2017

Nota

We can use this channel as range reference. To add longs or cut longs if pattern changes over to bearish.

14 mar 2017

Nota

I'm a little worried about the daily close here. The 1211 reversal at 61fib (which gave only $15 rally) is also problematic for bulls. The only thing going for bulls is RSI divergence that gives a possibility of double bottom rally. Its now the only reason I'm keeping long positions live, although I did heavily short 1204 as hedge.

If 1195 gives way I'll probably drop buying until below 1180.

15 mar 2017

Nota

Well played bulls. My target 1288, 1313 or 1345. Depends on pattern now.

20 mar 2017

Nota

Too busy to upload charts..Im going to hedge longs with shorts at 1243/44 and tentatively expecting bullish reaction at 1230. At worse it'll be a worthwhile scalp.

20 mar 2017

Nota

Got time to upload a chart. What I'm tracking is that this could be the start of wave iv (since fomc). There are 2 scenarios that I see for short-term sell and adding longs.

Option 1:
Short off 1235 high for 1220-23. This could work because the minimum target for wave 5 of wave iii is 1235. The math checks out nicely.

Option 2:
Short off 1240/44. These are potential targets in play for higher than 1235 top. Since wave iv could potentially be an irregular flat (wave ii was deep a zig-zag) I wouldn't be surprised if either these 2 target hits. This doesn't change conflict with Option 1 above.

The rally for wave v after has 3 potential targets as per chart. We should look out for them and act accordingly.

20 mar 2017

Nota

My preferred plan for short is Option 2 because irregular flat is more predictable in this position. Its also the ideal entry for SL hit and run. If Gold corrects off 1235 (Option 1) then we're dealing with normal/running flat, triangle or wedge - all of which are rather boring to watch with unpredictable TP.

21 mar 2017

Nota

Looks like Option 1 hit. The chart has been adjusted due to pattern and correction cycle that emerged yesterday. I prefer irregular/running flat in current play and price not to extend too much below 1220-19.

The subsequent 5th wave should rally minimum of $16-19 (1236-40). So gotta watch out for double top. Extended 5th still a possibility.

21 mar 2017

Nota

Channels for early buyers. Some EW thinks that the current correction is a running flat and that C is over. I'm waiting out for 5th wave of C before adding longs.

21 mar 2017

Nota

There's some kind of super bull here. Gold technically hasn't pulled back on daily timeframe. I really thought we'd get one today. Perhaps will get one in the 1252 zone (which is over $55 from the start of rally). Pullback off there ought to show up on daily so can add solid longs in.

22 mar 2017

Nota

These are trendline resistances from daily and weekly chart. They're on its 4th iteration and likely to fail. Lets stay on course with targets as per chart - 100, 127 fib TP will give further clues. Scalp shorts with care.

24 mar 2017

Nota

Scalping shorts off the 44 level and adding longs on the blue. Going down to 1230 means will have to monitor the rally's pattern to see if 1263 high can be broken.