"Bank Nifty has broken all hurdles. Real breakout or fake?"
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Bank Nifty Monthly Chart Wave Analysis:
June Candle: 2 more days left for the candle to close.
Current Market Price: ₹51,575
We drew all possible resistance trendlines and channels, and Bank Nifty has clearly broken out above everything(just 3 days left for June candle to close), with the wave extending.
Elliot Wave Analysis: Initially, we counted the October 2021 high as wave 3 in our past charts. However, the current momentum and breakouts suggest it could be wave 1, and we are possibly in wave 3 not wave 5th.
REAL Breakout: BN will retrace slightly and then move up again with strong candles in the coming months and it shouldn't enter the big purple color channel and close below 50,100(July Candle closing).
Buy on Dip: A good dip near 50,600-800 is a place to go long with a small stop loss below a 49900 day candle close. If entering at the current market price, the SL is the same.
Possible Upside Targets: 53,700, 57,000
FAKE Breakout: The July candle will break the purple color fib channel, retest, and come down with huge red candles. The candle shouldn't close above the purple channel again.
Sell on Rise: Sell only if the price breaks below the channel, around 49,900. In this case, short with a small SL.
Possible Targets: 44,444, 40,000
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on our personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions
June Candle: 2 more days left for the candle to close.
Current Market Price: ₹51,575
We drew all possible resistance trendlines and channels, and Bank Nifty has clearly broken out above everything(just 3 days left for June candle to close), with the wave extending.
Elliot Wave Analysis: Initially, we counted the October 2021 high as wave 3 in our past charts. However, the current momentum and breakouts suggest it could be wave 1, and we are possibly in wave 3 not wave 5th.
REAL Breakout: BN will retrace slightly and then move up again with strong candles in the coming months and it shouldn't enter the big purple color channel and close below 50,100(July Candle closing).
Buy on Dip: A good dip near 50,600-800 is a place to go long with a small stop loss below a 49900 day candle close. If entering at the current market price, the SL is the same.
Possible Upside Targets: 53,700, 57,000
FAKE Breakout: The July candle will break the purple color fib channel, retest, and come down with huge red candles. The candle shouldn't close above the purple channel again.
Sell on Rise: Sell only if the price breaks below the channel, around 49,900. In this case, short with a small SL.
Possible Targets: 44,444, 40,000
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on our personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions
Nota
Time: 9:00 AM, 26th June 2024Yesterday, Bank Nifty rallied another 1,000+ points and hit 127%. There are just a few days left for the June monthly candle to close. CMP is 52606.
We reviewed the Bank Nifty chart again and noticed it has hit another trendline resistance (extended trendline from COVID Wave 1 and Wave 2).
We are going with a fake breakout scenario with a stop loss above 53,150, targeting 44,444 and more positionally.
We haven't received confirmation from the Ichimoku Cloud yet, but this is based purely on wave analysis and trendline support and resistance.
We will keep posting our views here and update the trailing stop loss (TSL) regularly, so watch this space.
Monthly call option selling with the right edge or selling the July monthly futures is a better option with an edge.
Trade Plan:
Short July Month Bank Nifty Future. Current market price is 52,675.
Hedge with Monthly ATH 53,500 CE Call for safety. Last traded price (LTP) is 650.
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on our personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions
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