BTC Bull Market and the Weekly Gaussian Channel

18 mar

One indicator to rule them all.

Every cycle ends by dipping it's toe into quicksand.

Recommend high alert for 'Wick Candle'

29 mar

Nota

Update 3/29/25

The current weekly GC top channel is currently at $75,280 and rising about $1,000 per week
Therefore we should expect it to be around $76,300 next week (3/31 - 4/6)


Current Week Stats:
retest to March '24 pivot high = -2.04% into GC
retest to Cycle 3 top = -8.42% into GC


(Estimated) Next Week Stats:
retest to March '24 pivot high = -3.35% into GC
retest to Cycle 3 top = -9.46% into GC


I suggest that the longer it takes for this retest to occur, the less likely BTC is to see a rally back above the GC, and Cycle 0 shall repeat.

(Estimated) Next week Cycle 0 similar target (of 6.88% below GC) = $70,050


No guarantees, only probabilities. Stay safe out there folks.

29 mar

Nota

Also note, next week - the average wick into the GC (Not including Cycle 0) is -0.37%

That estimated move would be a dip to $76,000 - creating a swing fail pattern on current (March '25) low and just slightly front-running the March '24 pivot high. Pretty juicy setup if you ask me.

1 apr

Nota

--IMPORTANT UPDATE--

- 'Wick Candle' watch now upgraded from "High Alert" to "Extreme Alert"

- Issuing 'First Alert' for a "Wick Candle Failure' - (aka - weekly candle close inside GC with NO dead cat bounce above the GC = Cycle 0 repeating)

- Reasoning:
BTC on the 4h RSI is potentially soon to print bearish divergence from last week's high
BTC on the Daily RSI is potentially soon to print a head and shoulders

Unless volume comes in on this move to push price higher with strength, this may be the bull's last stand this cycle.

Remember, probabilities not certainties. Stay safe folks.

7 apr

Nota

UPDATE

Weekly GC Top Channel now coming in at around $77,500 depending on the ticker...

"Wick Candle Failure" now upgraded to "High Alert"

Eyes open, stay safe folks.

7 apr

Nota

IT'S OFFICIAL

THE CURRENT WEEK IS A 'WICK CANDLE' (occurred within the first 15 minutes of the candle!!)

"Wick Candle Failure" now upgraded to "Extreme Alert"

l’altro ieri

Nota

UPDATE

If the pattern continues, BTC has been experiencing a dead cat bounce over the past month.
Currently the bounce has reached ~31%

The average dead cat bounce after wicking into the weekly GC is 89%, but a pattern exists for only a 50% bounce this cycle.

89% bounce = ~$140K (this would be the first time a dead cat bounce produced a significantly higher ATH and seems unlikely to me, and would invalidate this pattern completely and very well may continue beyond $140K)

50% bounce = ~$111.5K (or essentially a retest of the ATH and a repeat of Cycle 3)

But the percentage value of the dead cat bounce is not the signature of "Wick Candle" pattern as much as it signaling a dead cat bounce is under way - and the top is already in or will only be retested with a slightly higher high with major bearish divergence on the weekly and higher timeframes.

Finally, the weekly gaussian channel top is currently @ ~$81,600 - $81,700 (depending on exchange)