BTC vs Market dominance [VIP]
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note:
I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to 20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance.
With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone.
Master Key for zones
*Blue = Monthly
*Purple = weekly
*Red = 4 Days
*Yellow = 16 Hours
*Orange = Daily
*Dark Green = 8 Hour
*Grey = 4hour
*Pink = 1 hour
Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading
An interesting note:
Based on a modelling concept using a base case where the Cryptocurrency market reaches the size of the gold market and Bitcoin remains at around 50% Market dominance and or reaches 60%+ as the market has previous held % dominance of. The price of BTC can reach heights of according to the multiplication factor of the model.
Note: Using at the time of model the gold market is 11.03Trillion. The Implied market cap of 6,781.80T at 60% gives an implied price per BTC at $360,734.04 per BTC. 50% Market dominance will provide an implied price per BTC at $300,611.70 per BTC.
Take into account the number of Bitcoins where wallets have lost access, and will have to forgo their Bitcoin value held also as mentioned in the article by cryptonomist.ch ~ "anyone who comes into possession of that backup can recover the wallet, so you must make sure to store it in an ultra-secure place if you want to do that". https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2021/06/05/how-to-recover-lost-bitcoins/
Unfortunately, there are no other viable solutions: lost bitcoins can be recovered only by restoring the wallet with the private keys of the public addresses where they are stored,
If the recovery of private keys cannot be recovered, then an estimated 20% of the 21,000,000 [21m supply]. worth as of writing the note: 4,2million coins lost at a value of $66,100 = a staggering figure 277.62B
Monthly Imbalances
Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point.
Bi-monthly Chart
The weekly sell zone from
64K All time high (at current).
The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone [which aligns with the Bi monthly] - refer to Weekly chart [1]
[1] - Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%.
Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history.
The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link.
Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart
Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap
Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation.
The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin.
Daily Market Cap with BTC price
Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity.
BTC - candle sticks
ETH - purple
BNB - Rose pink
XRP - Orange
ADA - Green
Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021
BTC - 44.69%
ETH - 18.51%
BNB - 3.19%
ADA - 3.11%
USDT - 2.95*
XRP - 2.22%
* based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat.
Source:
https://coinmarketcap.com/
Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note:
I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to 20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance.
With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone.
Master Key for zones
*Blue = Monthly
*Purple = weekly
*Red = 4 Days
*Yellow = 16 Hours
*Orange = Daily
*Dark Green = 8 Hour
*Grey = 4hour
*Pink = 1 hour
Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading
An interesting note:
Based on a modelling concept using a base case where the Cryptocurrency market reaches the size of the gold market and Bitcoin remains at around 50% Market dominance and or reaches 60%+ as the market has previous held % dominance of. The price of BTC can reach heights of according to the multiplication factor of the model.
Note: Using at the time of model the gold market is 11.03Trillion. The Implied market cap of 6,781.80T at 60% gives an implied price per BTC at $360,734.04 per BTC. 50% Market dominance will provide an implied price per BTC at $300,611.70 per BTC.
Take into account the number of Bitcoins where wallets have lost access, and will have to forgo their Bitcoin value held also as mentioned in the article by cryptonomist.ch ~ "anyone who comes into possession of that backup can recover the wallet, so you must make sure to store it in an ultra-secure place if you want to do that". https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2021/06/05/how-to-recover-lost-bitcoins/
Unfortunately, there are no other viable solutions: lost bitcoins can be recovered only by restoring the wallet with the private keys of the public addresses where they are stored,
If the recovery of private keys cannot be recovered, then an estimated 20% of the 21,000,000 [21m supply]. worth as of writing the note: 4,2million coins lost at a value of $66,100 = a staggering figure 277.62B
Monthly Imbalances
Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point.
Bi-monthly Chart
The weekly sell zone from
64K All time high (at current).The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone [which aligns with the Bi monthly] - refer to Weekly chart [1]
[1] - Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%.
Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history.
The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link.
Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart
Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap
Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation.
The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin.
Daily Market Cap with BTC price
Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity.
BTC - candle sticks
ETH - purple
BNB - Rose pink
XRP - Orange
ADA - Green
Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021
BTC - 44.69%
ETH - 18.51%
BNB - 3.19%
ADA - 3.11%
USDT - 2.95*
XRP - 2.22%
* based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat.
Source:
https://coinmarketcap.com/
Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
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