In previous bull markets, Bitcoin has been having 30% to 40% corrections every 180 to 240 days. We have already had almost 200 days since the last deep correction in March, and so far we've had only 20% corrections. This gives us a higher probability of a deeper correction in the near future.

A lot of people are speculating that BTC will fill the CME gap at $9,600 and as we know, Bitcoin likes to do what people expect the least. As a result, instead of the drop, we can see a bounce from the bottom of the channel which coincides with the 21 weekly MA. If Bitcoin manages to break the 112K resistance, we can see it quickly reach 14K, which will bring us to the top of the channel and can lead to a strong pullback of 40%. Basically, Bitcoin can turn bearish exactly when everyone turns very bullish. This can be that strong 40% pullback that we would be long overdue and can lead to filling the CME futures gap as well. After that, it's possible to see a quick bounce back up where we could turn our previous support into resistance at 112K again.
Support and ResistanceTrend Lines

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