The weekly BTC chart has failed to reach a 'momentum validation target' in time at the close of last week, but the chart remains bullish, showing the uptrend is in progress still. We have added back to our long position at 5350 give or take, and we aim for 6530 to 7390 to bank some of our trades.
There is time to hit these targets until January 15th, but in the short term, we don't want to see price go lower than 5369.53, if we do, we should keep a hard stop at 5145.08. If you have buys from way lower prices, keeping a 15% account sized position will be a good idea in the long term.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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The market is proving us right. This bodes well for uptrend continuation.
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The 'outside' bar today warns us of potential sideways action coming, unless we break up decisively soon.
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On track, holding 15% account long for now.
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Sideways action materialized, we'll have to be patient.
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I didn't get to update here, but I did buy more before this ramp up, and trailed my stop higher. I'm using a 2.5% trailing stop now, and have a 60% long position in profit.
I was a bit scared, but in profit, so I tightened stops and increased my long from 30% to 60%.
Usually, being scared, in profit means continuation, so I always do this and fade my emotions, like I'm bipolar xD
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Reduced longs to 15% again, and managed to score a 1% gain after buying dips and selling here near today's high.
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Strong action here in BTCCNY, let's hold and wait for a retracement to add to longs again
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Today's bar sets the stage for a dip buying operation, if we happen to get a dip.
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2-month validation target: 6770.19
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Looking to add on dips, any new daily low, or new weekly low warrants looking for buys. It's critical to time the entry correctly after the signal appears, that's when the proprietary trading strategy shines really.
I'd reccomend waiting for the week's close to confirm the entry zone. The stop loss is fine, but I won't place a stop at all, simply size trades correctly.
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Some examples of short term entries to rejoin the long term uptrend. The red crosses are the ones that dropped lower before resuming the upside. This is not a problem overall, if we enter into positions gradually, and use the long term stop losses, instead of tight intraday stops (or simply use no stops at all).
The key is figuring out the position size to benefit from the entries, without being in too big a risk if price drops a tad lower before turning up.
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Key level at 6555, hit. If we close above we might see weekly target this week, it's at 7047 give or take. If not hit before Monday, we can expect a retracement or sideways action.
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Added 15% here: 6375
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The close was very good, and we had a nice dip. Our add on 15% long from 6375 is in slight profit. I'll post a new intraday chart. It's time to add more to longs.
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I'm long 20% BTC and 20% ETH for now. Both BTC targets here hit.
now we need to break this 1000 USD resistance, and then i can retire...
cant wait for 2017 :D this already was a big Christmas gift for me.
We got a small dip here
IvanLabrie
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@Pato99, wait for today's close, then we can figure out where to enter on dips.
If you bought enough BTC to retire at these prices, it might be a really hefty position (unless you bought really low). Try to reduce the exposure, or at least on part of the position, start trailing stops following the recent price, with a 2.5% margin.
Pato99
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@IvanLabrie, I entered BTC long time ago when it was arround 250 USD. I think it was late 2015.
I also bought some Ether when it began to rise big, but i see no future for it anymore. thats why im shorting it since 2 months.
As i live very poor because i never touched the money I could build a very nice position.
Currently i only short ETH with 1% portfolio and here an there i long Btc with max 5-10% margin. Always closing BTC in green was very easy this year, even if it sometimes took some weeks when i bought wrong.
But so far i am very happy.
I lost too much money in day trading, so i keep it simple and dont do too much.
In the end i am not scared too much of a dump. Even if we see 500 USD again i am still much higher then my initial investment, so lets get the show on :)
IvanLabrie
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@Pato99, if we get signals suggesting such a decline, I'll let you know so you can hedge or bank before it drops 50%.
It'd be better to hedge, than sell the entry from $250.
rivet.popper
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@IvanLabrie, I'm curious what you think of Chandler Guo's long-term prediction of 10,000 to 1,000,000 USD per BTC. You once said you ran a mining operation, so I trust you understand the fundamentals. So is this price even remotely possible?
IvanLabrie
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@Rivet.popper, I think that type of call is just a cry for attention, or hype, or someone guessing. Not really productive.
He'd like that, to sustain his mining biz, but I don't see how that can happen for now.
For as long as Chinese citizens continue to use BTC to send money abroad, and the current dynamics are maintained, the trend should remain stable, with gradual increase of adoption, together with lower volatility in prices.
The mechanics of mining difficulty, and the eventual supply being reduced radically to only getting paid in transaction fees, is the sole argument sustaining higher prices in the future, but it has a few holes in it, as a thesis. First, BTC needs to be a useful and desirable good, it won't just sustain itself 'cause, mining'...
I'm versed in it, but not a specialist in that field, I'd rather work in the context of the technicals, and my own investment and trading timeframes. We can extract quite significant profits from Bitcoin's uptrend while it lasts, but we don't need to know how far it'll go, we just need a profitable exit after entering into a trade. Simple, right?
Hope you have an excellent week, and a Merry Christmas, cheers.
Ivan.
rivet.popper
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@IvanLabrie, Thanks for your reply. But actually what I'm looking for are some fundamental reasons why this COULDN'T happen. Given that a whole slew of macroeconomic factors are convening right now to make BTC a better and more secure store of wealth than gold (because the govt can't steal if from you whenever they want), isn't BTC kind of like the only thing you can rely on now? This in itself is a big deal. It's like owning land, but even better because you can spend it any time you want like cash, anywhere in the world, and once again, the govt can't step in and steal it.
Sure he's a miner and has lots of interest in getting people attracted to bitcoin, but what are the "holes" you're talking about? And anyway, do people have to actually use BTC for it to gain traction as a store of wealth? Nobody walks around using gold pieces to pay for stuff at the store either. At least with BTC you get that option (once your grocery store discovers it).
IvanLabrie
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@Rivet.popper, just don't get overly excited. Keep some capital in it, and look to trade around the core position.
Look at India, for a prototype, even Venezuela, and many other countries are experimenting with gradually introducing the (most likely) central banker influenced idea of banning cash money. -yes, they are all together in it...any country with a private central bank-
As for security, so far, the bitcoin protocol is ok, but we don't know if it'll remain being resilient perpetually.
It's not a big enough market yet to attract a massive crackdown on it, legally speaking, but it might be, one day.
Just don't speculate too far in the future, there are many variables that can only be conjectures, and no way of pricing Bitcoin, as cheap or expensive, other than sentiment, and technicals, unlike real businesses, where you can determine valuation way easier. So, ignore the talking heads, Bitcoin miners should stay in their field of, well, making money out of thin air with computer hardware :p