40k-38k & then 44k-45k again. ( Phase C of accumulation)

4 mar 2022

-Currently selling to 40k-38k, from where 44.6k & 43.6k was nice sell entries. Now would like a retest of 42k on light demand to look for another sell entry. Being currently into also an accumulation on the smaller time frame, which I assume being the leg of the big accumulation between 30k & 60K, I do expect a rise back to the upper part of the range, being 60k.

But as for now, if I only look at the small accumulation happening on the smaller time frame, I will only start considering a rise from 40k-38k to 44k-46k & see there what is happening, since the current weekly seems to not have enough demand yet for a break of 46k next right away, some more LPS ( test of supports) could happen before doing so, and an new idea will be made when this will be happening.

This idea is only to show where I see the market being right now, and present the scalp opportunities of a sell to 40k-38k & catching buys from this zones which I believe could be the soon mark-up that is about to begin, or just an opportunities to catch some nice buys to 44k-46k, depending ones trading style.


4 hrs & 1 hrs



Weekly


Monthly
January closed at 33k showing supply absorption signaling heavy buying there, after 3 months of downtrend on increasing supply volume. For then having last month closing with a pretty good amount of demand emerging considering the months of supply dominance before that. Even if the result of it did show still some good selling volume presence as well. As I said into one of my last ideas, and many times before, I've been expecting/reading an accumulation forming, playing into the 30k-60k range. I would have wanted to make a chart showing that accumulation on the monthly being more precise, but I don't feel like erasing this one. So I found one of a couple of days ago, on which I would like to point out about the January close.

-> The orange writing is the one important here. And the arrows are only so I can put an 'image' of an scenario I am expecting.

For the month January, I am suspecting that it could be, and it does have the characteristic, of it being a spring formation, just not having it looking like usual ones.
-Spring =price move below the support level of a trading range that quickly reverses and moves back into the range. ; Which the quick reverse from heavy supply to the demand that appeared last month being also a characteristic.

4 mar 2022

Nota

As on the smaller time frame range the market is in, I forgot to mention that it was also an unclassical spring that formed, but it is still valid. Both regarding volume & the breach of the two prior lows.

5 mar 2022

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

38k-40k sell target have been reached. I closed my positions and could looks for sell at a retest of 42k showing weak demand, since heavy supply appeared on the drop to test back the 38k-40k, which is a failure to produce a Major sign of strength, into the last phase of it's accumulation. Which for not show it having the inability to overcome & close above 46k. Which was something I suspected during the move downward.


‘’ But as for now, if I only look at the small accumulation happening on the smaller time frame, I will only start considering a rise from 40k-38k to 44k-46k & see there what is happening, since the current weekly seems to not have enough demand yet for a break of 46k next right away, some more LPS ( test of supports) could happen before doing so, and an new idea will be made when this will be happening. ,’’

Regarding it reaching the 44k-46k, I only did consider that area & still only do as a right now bullish scenario because of how it did fail to show sign of strength. And when it will actually do show SOS I will update then about it. What could happen next now & would be one of the best scenarios to see signs of the supply being calmed down & the accumulation still being valid is a move back to 42k-42.5k, for then going back for 40k or the 37k area if it does so, which is the level to defend here to not see lower. Basically I would like to see some choppy choppy to the right, having supply decreasing.

And another scenario is a break under 37k on heavy maintained supply, showing that it does go back for a revisit of 34k-35k areas.

9 mar 2022

Nota

''What could happen next now & would be one of the best scenarios to see signs of the supply being calmed down & the accumulation still being valid is a move back to 42k-42.5k''

And I did have it & my supply absorption, moving the price to 42k as expected.



here it is moving to 42k as expected. Going to update with a new idea about the whole thing.

9 mar 2022

Nota

For now.



would like a retracement to 39.6-40.5 on light supply for buys entries.

9 mar 2022

Nota

Still expecting a retracement to 40kish.

the blue-greenish cluster. Fun to look at the volume demand bar compared to the bars printing. And compare it to our current circumstances... One of the signs that demand is getting exhausted.

Break under 41.8 on supply or/& retest of 42k-42.2k on light demand are good sell entries. Expecting a move down to 40ish. But will start with 40.8-41k & look how is the demand there since we could have a movement right back where we are and an occasion to sell again to 40k ish. Since theres still been good demand coming in on the last reaction up, and this is still an accumulation overall, I am going to be careful with my sells.


& Will look for buys around 40kish, as mentioned.

10 mar 2022

Nota

Entry got touch, here it goes into profits with no drawdown.

10 mar 2022

Nota

supply decreasing approaching 40.5... closing my profit there. depending how it retest 42 I could get into a sell again, but remaining careful if I did since this is bullish overall and zones that supply showing heavy buying previously. And are still the considered LPS zone of the accumulation.

Updates will be again provided soon.

11 mar 2022

Nota

'' What could happen next now & would be one of the best scenarios to see signs of the supply being calmed down & the accumulation still being valid is a move back to 42k-42.5k, for then going back for 40k or the 37k area if it does so, which is the level to defend here to not see lower. Basically I would like to see some choppy choppy to the right, having supply decreasing ''

Went for 42k for then then dropping back to the 38k-37k area. I would have like a retest again of 42k before it dropped straight up having more selling coming in but it's fine LOL. We still into the expected zones. I would still look for the same, having some choppy choppy to the right, having supply decreasing for having some kind of strength, for an imminent move to 46k and break of it.

Which the way I see it is that It will go back for the 35k area, where I would expect further more supply absorption.

As FOR NOW, I am going to look for buys to the 41.8-42 area for then sells around there for price, going back again where we are (38k-40k & 35k if) , considering heavy selling interest that have been sitting at these areas preventing the accumulation to unfold and have the price breaking upside the cycle.

Which don't worry me that much since theres been definitive heavy buying sitting & being accumulated at 35k-38k as well. That should maintains and absorb all the supply overall. Basically will look to scalp the upcoming choppiness ( between 35k-38k to 40k-42k range ) till it's to ugly to do so or the market finally break on a side, which I still expect to be upward.


Here we can see the sellers being still heavily present are the 42k area.


Here on the daily is noticeable the rise I do expect going back to the 41.8-42 area.

16 mar 2022

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

'' As FOR NOW, I am going to look for buys to the 41.8-42 area for then sells around there for price, going back again where we are (38k-40k & 35k if) , considering heavy selling interest that have been sitting at these areas preventing the accumulation to unfold and have the price breaking upside the cycle.''

-> Reached 41.8-42 as predicted. Dropped right away from it as predicted also.

A lot while nothing have happened for the last 5 days, that made me maintains my buying bias even tho that it was looking kinda bearish & stagnant with weird volume action.

As sign that it was ready to lift off, was the comparison of these two reaction I made one hour before the pump.


I've been having request of explanations about how it was possible to read these + not getting phased by the weird price action that occurred. Making a typed idea keep me from putting all the infos I would like to share with yall, and from me being even more clear & going through into more details.

So tomorrow around 10 EST, I will go over how I could predict the pump to 42k & the immediate drop, and other information's about my overall bias of where we are located right now, in the clearest most complete way possible.

19 mar 2022

Nota

,''What could happen next now & would be one of the best scenarios to see signs of the supply being calmed down & the accumulation still being valid is a move back to 42k-42.5k, for then going back for 40k or the 37k area if it does so, which is the level to defend here to not see lower. Basically I would like to see some choppy choppy to the right, having supply decreasing ''

Being into an accumulation & like we are into the last phases of it, when theres was some heavy supply coming in, I wanted to know where is it coming from, and where it is most likely to get absorbed. Which 37k seems to have done this job.

More than a week ago I made this representation of a scenario, that would most be likely to happen if 37k-38k did hold & some steady supply absorption would happen, so seeing what is happening now with price. I am happy with it.


Ive been noticing so many things going on how the price has been moving, so going to start with these observations.

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22 mar 2022

Nota

To make a summary of it all & update about what is going on.

Price left 45k zone on heavy supply. Which is not best characteristic into an accumulation cycle. So then I wanted have all that supply getting absorbed at the 38k-40k area. Which it gradually did. For then having demand being overweighting supply significantly again, signaling that theres been a shift from supply to demand, closing with a full demand bullish day on the 14th March.

For the day after having a retracement of that candle showing heavy buying interest coming in absorbing the supply that showed up, for the days after having price breaking upside 40k, which has been a accumulation area from the CO. Buyers being obviously the dominant players at this point, the 40.3k got retested again, showing buying absorbing and even heavier supply coming in, with sellers ending the day with barely having moved price to the downside.

Now we got another HH to 42.6 that has been an heavy volume selling zone have been slowing down the velocity of price while also having demand going more soft.

For now, I do thin that we gonna have a rise to 44.5, and from there probably an actual retracement right back where we are.

40.5 area had nice buy entry and would ride a buy to 42k. And 44.5k with adding position at break of 42.5.

22 mar 2022

Nota

Yesterday closed with a retest 40.5 showing important heavy buying interest & that we are still moving to the upper part of the range. Will now look to add another buy around 41.2-41.5 on light supply. Still expecting price going to the 44.5 area.

24 mar 2022

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

The two main targeted areas have been reached, so this idea is done for now.

Now what I do expect is price going back for a retest of 41-42 area.

Will update & make a new idea soon.

24 mar 2022

Nota

** going back floor after going for 44.5-46. I am still bullish on this until demand show actual sign of weakness..

Took another buy at 43.8 & would look for another entry 43.3.

26 mar 2022

Nota

23 hours ago

* expecting it going for 44.5-46. I am still bullish on this until demand show actual sign of weakness.. for then I expect the drop to 41-42.

From the 41-42 area I will look for rebuys.
sorry about the messy gibberish on my last update

Will prob make a whole new idea about it once it's back at 41.42.

28 mar 2022

Nota

Demand did not show sign of some maintained minor weakness for a pullback to 41-42. Instead even more demand came in, breaking upside of the accumulation on a SOS. Which is a confirmation that the accumulation was into in fact, it's last phase.

Now I would expect a furthermore rise to 50-52. And some retest of the accumulation in due time. Will update about this later.