Doing a little investigating, I've happened to note that both the 2014 bull run and our 2017 bull run gained equal percentages. They're also both moving in a very similar way, leading me to believe that we will find our bottom in February of 2019. From there, this is a chance we could break into the 90k region, but that won't be until the beginning of 2022. If you want to consider a realistic scenario, this is as real as it can get.
Even if you don't believe it can hit 90k, take from this chart that it can go down to 2600.