BTC - Food for Thought in Q1 .. Will We See a Cycle Top?
I've seen many analysts looking for a top in Q1 .. potentially Q2. Lesser looking for something late in 2025 into 2026.
You can put me in the camp that will likely exit my biggest positions in Q1 if the market tracks like I'm hoping.
I see Bitcoin dominance wavering a bit here, and on the log trend we a resistance approaching around low to mid 100s (estimate 125k).
Of course its not my only data point .. its one of many so I'll also look for confluence among momentum data, on-chain metrics, and sentiment.
Note: even if you plan to sell in this cycle, you should keep some long term holdings. We are in the early stages of actual broad adoption with ETFs, consumers, and nation states eyeing up crypto (especially BTC, and also ETH but o a lesser extent).
This means corrections won't be as steep, as additional demand absorbs the usual heavy selling at end of cycle.. so don't expect another 80% corrections to buy into. I would think a 40% to 50% is the biggest, and thats probably being greedy.
You can put me in the camp that will likely exit my biggest positions in Q1 if the market tracks like I'm hoping.
I see Bitcoin dominance wavering a bit here, and on the log trend we a resistance approaching around low to mid 100s (estimate 125k).
Of course its not my only data point .. its one of many so I'll also look for confluence among momentum data, on-chain metrics, and sentiment.
Note: even if you plan to sell in this cycle, you should keep some long term holdings. We are in the early stages of actual broad adoption with ETFs, consumers, and nation states eyeing up crypto (especially BTC, and also ETH but o a lesser extent).
This means corrections won't be as steep, as additional demand absorbs the usual heavy selling at end of cycle.. so don't expect another 80% corrections to buy into. I would think a 40% to 50% is the biggest, and thats probably being greedy.
Trade attivo
Food for thought: if you follow the linear trend (red) instead of log (black), the top of the cycle is around 200k.
A smart move is probably to zoom into a lower timeframe and explore the linear trend over the past cycle only.
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