BTCUSD: Revenge of the Log-Resistance. 12 month bear market?
Everyone was over the moon when BTC did it's BGD right through the log resistance line on the 20th of April 2018 (Line 1). However when we look at the price action from May 2014, we see that BTC did the same thing, only to fall victim to another Log-Trend line (Line 2), which dictated it's upper resistance line for the next 12 months. In July 2015, BTC was squeezed between an only support line from the initial 2013 bubble and the 2nd December Log-Resistance (Line 2) and finally broke out. It followed the support line until Nov 2015 where is get trapped under a 3rd Log-resistance (Line 3) line until April 2016, again breaking to the upside and starting the beginnings of the most recent bubble.
If we look at the recent action, we see that BTC is moving through the stages of a bubble much faster than it was in 2014/15. However the question is how much faster? Are we currently trapped between Lines 1 and 2, and will eventually head south looking for the fabled $3000 mark, before breaking back out? Or, are we already past Line 2, and are currently looking at the squeeze between Line 3 and the Sept-2017 support line?
If we are already at Line 3, then I see BTC staying in the 7500-8500 range for another ~month before breaking out. A position equivalent to Dec 2016 (Green vertical line), and meaning the bubble cycle is 4x faster than 2013
If we are only now finding the 2nd Log-resistance, this could well mean another 12 months of bear market and BTC bottoming out around the 3k mark. A position equivalent to Aug 2014 (Blue vertical line) and meaning that the bubble cycle is 1.5x faster than 2013
Either way I expect to see the 7000-7500 range before we make a major move again.
As always questions and comments are most welcome!
If we look at the recent action, we see that BTC is moving through the stages of a bubble much faster than it was in 2014/15. However the question is how much faster? Are we currently trapped between Lines 1 and 2, and will eventually head south looking for the fabled $3000 mark, before breaking back out? Or, are we already past Line 2, and are currently looking at the squeeze between Line 3 and the Sept-2017 support line?
If we are already at Line 3, then I see BTC staying in the 7500-8500 range for another ~month before breaking out. A position equivalent to Dec 2016 (Green vertical line), and meaning the bubble cycle is 4x faster than 2013
If we are only now finding the 2nd Log-resistance, this could well mean another 12 months of bear market and BTC bottoming out around the 3k mark. A position equivalent to Aug 2014 (Blue vertical line) and meaning that the bubble cycle is 1.5x faster than 2013
Either way I expect to see the 7000-7500 range before we make a major move again.
As always questions and comments are most welcome!
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