The bear case for Bitcoin

2 apr 2019

This morning, price dramatically increased, taking out a local high and pushes towards $5150.

My previous outlook for Bitcoin stated that I anticipated that it would start going down, considering the resistance at $4200 it was at. I proposed an ABC as a 4th wave in a bigger wave (C), said wave being part of a large ABC denoting the whole bear market. In this case I had to allow for truncation of the subwave C of this 4th wave. However now, we've seen it pump higher. Interestingly enough, this proposed C-wave has pumped to 1.618x the length of the proposed A wave from the current bottom to $4250. This means it could morph into a 1-2-3(-4-5) set up and mark the end of the bear market.

However, this bear count indicates that we there is a still a possibility that we aren't out of the woods yet where bears roam. Let's list some things

• We've pumped into the 0.328-0.5 zone, the highest probability zone for a 4th wave.
  
• We have not gone outside this proposed falling channel, although it can be drawn in several different ways.
  
• It looks like a large bear flag, although it can morph into an uptrend if it continues to make higher highs.
  
• It has broken the 200EMA Daily (red), which I value a lot. The idea for bulls is to close above it (4600ish). Bears want to see it close below it, ideally.
  
• A better similarity than before with:
  
• Test of weekly 50EMA and 21EMA cross
  
• Test of 21EMA monthly
  
• NVT signal flashing red
  
• Daily kumo cloud gave a signal a week ago by turning green. This is bullish.
  

Bear targets at 2500,2300,1800 remain unresolved until we break higher.