I bet you didn't know where Bitcoin was headed until THIS!
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Being a trader is not about being right or wrong, but about the probabilities. Today's momentum will not be the same as the momentum tomorrow. We must understand that the market is dynamic and what is forecast on the chart is not absolute, just as weather predictions are not always 100% certain. With that being said, it important to always look at both sides of the market to remove any emotional biased that may affect our attention to detail when analyzing price predictions and movements. Following on previous updates related to this idea, my "Ultimate Bear Trap" is no longer in play, having broken the key 5.2 support level of the previous trading range. Any bullish market structure is therefore broken and any deviations are reaffirmed to be correct based on the previous price actions.
Since many of you reading these are new traders, I will try my best to clearly explain all of the technicals. If you have any questions or are confused about any part of my analysis, please ask them in the comments and I will answer and include them in my updates.
To begin my global analysis, these rectangular boxes drawn on the chart above are the key levels that I am looking for in terms of support/resistance. What I am looking at here at previous weekly ranges that would act as good layers of support. To the right of these charts is the volume profile, which is marked with red "X"s that shows very large volume gaps. Typically in a market where we move "too fast", we tend to skip over price levels during a breakout. During retracements, what we will typically see is a "volume fill" to retest these skipped price levels to reconfirm these prices. After these volume fills, what we will typically see is whether or not these retested price levels are worthy of being at this level. If they are not, we will simply go lower and test the next volume gap (like falling through a pile of bricks until one level of brick decides to hold).
Currently we are at the first orderblock support which is the current level being tested. If we break below this level then we will simply fall to the next orderblock (like falling through a pile of bricks). If we close daily below 4.1k, then expect us to fall to the next level at 2.5k - 3k. And if we fall below 2.5k, expect as low as 1k - 1.2k for the next layer of "bricks" to hold as support. However be aware of "fakeouts" (I am not allowed to post links outside of TV, so you will have to search up "TD Breakout Qualifiers").
On the daily chart, this looks like we have a lot more room for downside. I would expect **at least** another 2 weeks of downside or sideways chop before seeing any major temporary reversals swings. Since we have broken market structure, this looks like the very beginning of capitulation of the bear market cycle.
On the H4 chart, we had a very nice bounce off of the TD9 candle (look up TD Sequential if you are not familiar), however that got sold down quite fast. Seeing how fast we got sold down on that bounce, this is a good indication of the current bearish pressure that we are seeing in the market and for more to come. I am not expecting any bounces to 5.8k or 6k yet given the current price action and selling pressure. We do have some very nice bullish divergences on the RSI, but since this is a bear flag, do not expect this to indicate any signs of reversals. We may see a few bounces here and there, but once the RSI resets to 50-60 RSI (or 40 if we are very bearish), it is likely that we will see the next major move down.
This hourly chart is currently what I am watching for predicting the next swing move. At the moment we are trading below the 4489 EQ (equilibrium) level. (To calculate the EQ, simply take the midrange of the first swing after the major move). Since we are trading below the EQ, it shows that bears currently have control of this trading range. It looks like we will range between 4k and 4489 for a while until a further move is decided. This is a very good scalping range if you place your orders above/below the previous high/low where stops are likely placed and hunted.
On the 15m chart, we had a pulse signal that fired towards the upside taking out those 4431 stops at the previous high of the bounce. However we failed to break and close above the 4489 EQ level. We got a very nice rejection right off of it. I am expecting a move below 4179 now to run those stops.
Conclusion:
I have no bullish/bearish biased at the time since we've broken below my 5.2k key level to remain bullish. I will keep on posting updates on what I see for the next swing, as predicting longer-term swings become less accurate as we look further out into the future. If we break and close below 4.2k on the hourly (or any higher timeframe for a higher probability confirmation), then expect to see a drop to 2.5k - 3k.
As for the bullish side, look for at break and close above 4.5k on the hourly (or any higher timeframe for higher probability of confirmation), for a retest of 4750. If we break and close above 4750 on the hourly, we may get that 5k - 5.1k retest which may be a good short entry for further downside.
And as always, trade safe, don't be greedy, and always manage risk :)
If you find my analysis helpful, remember to click the like button and follow me for further updates. I greatly appreciate it!
Since many of you reading these are new traders, I will try my best to clearly explain all of the technicals. If you have any questions or are confused about any part of my analysis, please ask them in the comments and I will answer and include them in my updates.
To begin my global analysis, these rectangular boxes drawn on the chart above are the key levels that I am looking for in terms of support/resistance. What I am looking at here at previous weekly ranges that would act as good layers of support. To the right of these charts is the volume profile, which is marked with red "X"s that shows very large volume gaps. Typically in a market where we move "too fast", we tend to skip over price levels during a breakout. During retracements, what we will typically see is a "volume fill" to retest these skipped price levels to reconfirm these prices. After these volume fills, what we will typically see is whether or not these retested price levels are worthy of being at this level. If they are not, we will simply go lower and test the next volume gap (like falling through a pile of bricks until one level of brick decides to hold).
Currently we are at the first orderblock support which is the current level being tested. If we break below this level then we will simply fall to the next orderblock (like falling through a pile of bricks). If we close daily below 4.1k, then expect us to fall to the next level at 2.5k - 3k. And if we fall below 2.5k, expect as low as 1k - 1.2k for the next layer of "bricks" to hold as support. However be aware of "fakeouts" (I am not allowed to post links outside of TV, so you will have to search up "TD Breakout Qualifiers").
On the daily chart, this looks like we have a lot more room for downside. I would expect **at least** another 2 weeks of downside or sideways chop before seeing any major temporary reversals swings. Since we have broken market structure, this looks like the very beginning of capitulation of the bear market cycle.
On the H4 chart, we had a very nice bounce off of the TD9 candle (look up TD Sequential if you are not familiar), however that got sold down quite fast. Seeing how fast we got sold down on that bounce, this is a good indication of the current bearish pressure that we are seeing in the market and for more to come. I am not expecting any bounces to 5.8k or 6k yet given the current price action and selling pressure. We do have some very nice bullish divergences on the RSI, but since this is a bear flag, do not expect this to indicate any signs of reversals. We may see a few bounces here and there, but once the RSI resets to 50-60 RSI (or 40 if we are very bearish), it is likely that we will see the next major move down.
This hourly chart is currently what I am watching for predicting the next swing move. At the moment we are trading below the 4489 EQ (equilibrium) level. (To calculate the EQ, simply take the midrange of the first swing after the major move). Since we are trading below the EQ, it shows that bears currently have control of this trading range. It looks like we will range between 4k and 4489 for a while until a further move is decided. This is a very good scalping range if you place your orders above/below the previous high/low where stops are likely placed and hunted.
On the 15m chart, we had a pulse signal that fired towards the upside taking out those 4431 stops at the previous high of the bounce. However we failed to break and close above the 4489 EQ level. We got a very nice rejection right off of it. I am expecting a move below 4179 now to run those stops.
Conclusion:
I have no bullish/bearish biased at the time since we've broken below my 5.2k key level to remain bullish. I will keep on posting updates on what I see for the next swing, as predicting longer-term swings become less accurate as we look further out into the future. If we break and close below 4.2k on the hourly (or any higher timeframe for a higher probability confirmation), then expect to see a drop to 2.5k - 3k.
As for the bullish side, look for at break and close above 4.5k on the hourly (or any higher timeframe for higher probability of confirmation), for a retest of 4750. If we break and close above 4750 on the hourly, we may get that 5k - 5.1k retest which may be a good short entry for further downside.
And as always, trade safe, don't be greedy, and always manage risk :)
If you find my analysis helpful, remember to click the like button and follow me for further updates. I greatly appreciate it!
Nota
Looks like bitcoin might get a big bounce soon.
Nota
Im watching that EQ break. Going to be longing this for a scalp towards 4.8k. Going to sell half at that target and letting the rest stop out at my entry (in case we go higher to test 5.2k).
(Also unrelated to BTC, but XRP looks like a nice IHS play to 0.48 on the 15m timeframe)
Nota
A lot of shorts were loaded at 4.8k yesterday (Coinbase price). Im expecting us to run previous day's high of 4889 and attempt to squeeze these shorts out of their positions. So this short float may fuel us to 5.2k bounce. Looking to reload my shorts there at 5.2k if we get it.
Nota
Falling back below that 4489 equilibrium would invalidate this bounce play to 4.8k. There is some resistance at 4.6k. Lets see if we can break above it.
Nota
Also note falling back below this equilibrium level without taking out previous highs of 4759 would further decrease our chances of seeing a big bounce and increase our chance of seeing a dump as the resistance at this range becomes stronger with decreasing demand and unfilled supply at that liquidity area.Nota
Will be layering shorts here at 4520 - 4600 with tight stops at 4.7k. It is a bit too early to short without falling back below the equilibrium level, but seeing these lower highs makes me think that we might not get the bounce to 4.8k.
Nota
Another bounce off the EQ. Lowering my stops to 4650 for an S/R flip if this breaks out.
Nota
Fell back below the EQ. Looks like there was not enough demand this time in order to push the price back above previous highs. Now it is time to test the previous low. I could see us ranging for a bit here before a decisive move is taken. Looking to cover half at 4.2 and letting the rest stop out at the 4489 EQ. I could see us reattempt this high again off a 4400 bounce, but overall it seems like we're losing momentum for the upside.
Nota
Supply pool seems to be diminishing here at the EQ. Looks like we'll be ranging for a bit before a decision is made on the direction of the market.
Nota
Looks like we've grinded on the supply at the EQ quite a bit. If we get a close above 4546 on the 4hr, we could see a pump to 4.8k and possibly squeeze out the shorts up to 5.2k
Nota
Note: I would advise going long until we get the close. This grind up looks like a possible bull trap.Nota
We closed 4hr at 4545. Unfortunately, we were $1 off from the 4546 close that I was looking for.
Nota
Shorts are opened, however I will close my position as soon as there is any sign of momentum change to the upside.Nota
https://ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9XOhG7G/I am out of my short. I do not like this current price action. We are still grinding against the resistance at the top of this orderblock but sell books are heavy. We could see a big wick up here that will get sold down pretty fast. I would be cautious here as demand could simply run out and we drop rapidly, or we could continue grinding upwards until supply has been filled and get a very big candle.
Nota
Hello all. Won't be posting charts til Monday because of the holiday and I will be on mobile this entire weekend, but we broke recent 4400 support. Expect another test of that 4k low and stop hunt under it. We may get a bounce off that liquidity run below 4k and wick down to 3.8 - 3.9 followed by a bounce to 4.2 (or 4150ish because of bear pressure). I have alarms set for levels below 4k to cover and reshort the bounce. Expect some very choppy downwards price action with random spikes to the upside forming lower highs on hourly closes.As for 15m timeframe we have a bearish TD9 winding up for a further drop. This is the best I can do for now.
Note: I am short off that 4400 support break with stops at 4600 in case we get one of those random high wicks to run stops. I was waiting for that decreasing demand pattern forming lower highs and a flat bottom for a confirmation. This may be a wide stop for those of you who use high leverage.
Nota
Hello everyone, hope you had a happy thanksgiving. We've breached the 4k support and this is looking like we're going to be going straight down to my next 2.5 - 3k target. I am expecting some sort of a bounce at 3k since that is a psychological support level before further downside. Today is going to be a fun day. Lets hope we get my lowest 1k - 1.2k target :)
Nota
Perfect long off that 15m TD9. This might validate us to test 4k again, so I am only taking half profits at 3823 EQ and letting the rest stop out at my entry. Looking to take the rest of my profits when we take out that 4k high. I have sell orders at 4100 - 4200, but will take profits after taking out the 4k highs if we do not meet them.
Nota
Looks like we're hunting stops at those previous lows again. Adding more to my long position here at 3580. (Note: I am not moving my stop to my entry until my 3823 target is hit, current stop is still at 3500). I expect more stop hunts to come.
Nota
Moved Stop to 3499 as I could see we could tag 3.5 and bounce.Nota
Shorting here at 3.5k for an S/R flip looking to cover at 3000 - 3100.
Surprised we didn't even tag the EQ on that range. Look at 2.5k - 3k for the next EQ play.
That was pretty frustrating not hitting my EQ target for a scalp, but that just shows how bearish this pressure is.
Nota
Ideally we should have seen some sort of test of the mid-range before further downside. Running stops below the 3650 low of this trading range by over 5% caught me entirely off guard because stop runs usually only deviate by 1-3% of the lows. I knew a three wave correction was coming, but thought we would get it much lower near 3k after breaking below this range without testing the 3823 EQ level. This was a strong sign of bear pressure, however it ended up being a deep stop run. Knife-catching is not an easy game. The whales got me this time.
Nota
This was what I had in mind with 3.6k being the low of wave 5 (I even charted it early). But instead was thinking it would end up being at 3k because of the explanation above.
Nota
I am temporarily bullish to 4.5k - 4.6k from here. I think we will get a correction back into that orderblock before heading down lower to test the 3k level.
Nota
Very nice stop hunt this morning. Got another opportunity to add more to my long position below 3580. It also looks like we have formed a new EQ point at 3789 from our previous LH swing. Looking to retest 4.1 again and make a break towards our 4.6 target.
Keeping an eye on 3800 resistance. We had a good long signal off the post TD9 candle on the hourly, but we must break above this 3789 EQ to maintain bullish control. I'll be watching for failed breaks above this EQ to close my long position.
Nota
Similar 15m pattern that we saw right before the 1000 point candle last time. However I wonder if this accumulation pattern is enough to get the very big bounce to 4.6 because we got rejected at 3.8. I wouldn't be surprised if we kept on repeating this pattern here every time we hit the green box. Interesting pattern to observe for now.
Long off 3600. Was expecting a stop hunt before pump here after all that accumulation.
Current target is 3911, back into that bearish orderblock on the H1. If we break above this bearish OB, then target is 4.6k.
H1 Pulse indicating some high volatility coming.
Another repetition of the accumulation pattern.
Nota
There are two plays that I am looking for now,1: We take out the 4120 high off the OB resistance to run stops before falling back down to 3789 EQ support,
2: We break above the bearish OB and run up to 4.6 top of the previous weekly OB, after that, we may go sideways a bit and mirror the price range below the weekly OB and get 5.2 - 5.3k.
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