BTC - Both Daily Scenarios
Hello Traders. Today we will examine both the bearish and bullish case for BTC on the daily timeframe then conclude which ones seems more likely.
Bearish case - The bearish scenario is shown on the chart to the left. This shows BTC's price in a descending triangle that recently broke the support and confirmed the breakdown with yesterdays candle. This is in confluence with our 100 MA on the daily. We broke that MA (after holding support multiple times) and now we are currently holding that MA (blue line) as new resistance. If this breakdown is to occur our 1.618 is around 23.8k. From a news perspective they will blame this price decline on the debt ceiling uncertainty if it is to play out.
Bullish case - The bullish scenario is shown on the chart to the right. This shows BTC's price in a falling wedge pattern (very similar to the falling wedge that brought us out of the 2022 bear market). If we breakout of this pattern our first target would be the top of the wedge (31k) followed by our 1.618 around (34.2k). If this scenario plays out they will say BTC's price appreciation is due to the US debt ceiling being raised and because of the Hong Kong investors are getting in (June 1).
Both patterns show a very large move is coming very soon and each scenario has a news catalyst to drive it in either direction. As of the date of this post (5/26) the bullish scenario seems more likely. This is due to the recent double bottom we have seen at 25.8k and also because price has struggled to show strong selling pressure under our support. If over the next 1-2 days we see btc fail to break back above the 100D Moving average then the breakdown becomes the more likely scenario as the June deadline approaches.
Bearish case - The bearish scenario is shown on the chart to the left. This shows BTC's price in a descending triangle that recently broke the support and confirmed the breakdown with yesterdays candle. This is in confluence with our 100 MA on the daily. We broke that MA (after holding support multiple times) and now we are currently holding that MA (blue line) as new resistance. If this breakdown is to occur our 1.618 is around 23.8k. From a news perspective they will blame this price decline on the debt ceiling uncertainty if it is to play out.
Bullish case - The bullish scenario is shown on the chart to the right. This shows BTC's price in a falling wedge pattern (very similar to the falling wedge that brought us out of the 2022 bear market). If we breakout of this pattern our first target would be the top of the wedge (31k) followed by our 1.618 around (34.2k). If this scenario plays out they will say BTC's price appreciation is due to the US debt ceiling being raised and because of the Hong Kong investors are getting in (June 1).
Both patterns show a very large move is coming very soon and each scenario has a news catalyst to drive it in either direction. As of the date of this post (5/26) the bullish scenario seems more likely. This is due to the recent double bottom we have seen at 25.8k and also because price has struggled to show strong selling pressure under our support. If over the next 1-2 days we see btc fail to break back above the 100D Moving average then the breakdown becomes the more likely scenario as the June deadline approaches.
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