BTC/USD: Now what?

Our scenario of early June has been completed: the old pivots lows around 6450 have been hit. Things have once again become much more difficult now that the major move on the 420-minute chart has been completed. A short period of ‘shuffling’ is likely before a major move is once again undertaken. Some consolidation (couple of hours up to perhaps a few days max) is expected around the 6450-mark.

For the longer term we remain quite bearish. We do expect a move beyond the aforementioned 6450-pivot area. Our main concern from a pure trading perspective is when will this break occur: directly or after a considerable bounce? Although we see the first option as more likely (65% chance), the alternative could be highly costly since prices have up to ~9800 before the negative outlook significantly changes. In other words, the outlook is relatively clear but trading/risk strategies are quite difficult.

We suggest (and undertake ourselves) the following: Cover 60% of existing shorts now. Maintain the rest with a trailing stop above 6920. If/once prices break below 6200 we will re-enter short to 100% with stops (for all) at 6700. Focus points on the down side: 5120 and the 4450-area.

Note that for real improvement (all time frames) much is needed so we do not really focus on that at this point.

Trend: negative
Outlook: major target hit, bounce or continuation…
Strategy: hold-short / short-entry below 6200
Support: 6450 / 5120* / 4450
Resistance: 6920 / 7265 / 7750+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 6920