A look at my garbage chart

18 dic 2020

Truth is the insight comes from everyone else's charts. I've seen several people publish wave charts that seem exceedingingly prescient, not the mention the fractal theory.
All in all, this is a tumultuous time that one would expect to bleed from economy to fiat markets to us, but clearly we are seeing a new breed of crypto bull in the form of bros like Michael Saylor (so far has gambled big, and won). Bears who are basing their theory on the speculative nature of bitcoin only being a stable function of a meme sucking value out of fiat currencies, via victims of a supposed ponzi schemes, need to consider hanging that up. Bitcoin seems to generate enough of a critical mass of activity and content creation within a market that it generates something akin to a public good that is equivalent to the cultural impact of Visa and Mastercard in our lifetimes.

Clearly, this chart is me goofing off, i do scroll to various points in different scales to compare previous reaction to price changes, that analysis does not exist here.

13 dic 2021

Nota

yeah, did not realize how much of a bro Saylor turned out to be. But there is no doubt that Bitcoin has the ability to flip all publicly traded companies. Meanwhile, my charts continue to be garbage, and I continue to be a pain in the ass for all you haters in the crypto chat.

Current thesis is to watch institutional traction and where/when the printer is going brrrr. Expect your bear market in 2022 at some point, but I would not be surprised if BTC continues to play above support, and I would be less surprised if assets like ETH continue to eat up market share.

Pay less attention to the companies that follow web3 momentum by pivoting on their brand. These guys want to survive, and their attention and brain trust does not sit on the actual innovation taking place. They're not top signals necessarily, but take the moonboi nonsense whereever it shows up with a giant grain of salt.

Regulations are nothingburger, as you may see already that several governments have made the risk/benefit analysis and they do not depend on the IMF or the world bank, meanwhile the benefits are distinctly clear.

Willing to guess that taking any country off the SWIFT system in the spirit of a sanction carries little to no weight. Crypto is here to stay, just watch the space for the decisive news of nationstate or commercial bank adoption.

Bull market may be extended, but all good things come to an end. You will try and frontrun, and you might be able to time it correctly, but for the rest, this is that moment where conviction is necessary and the only true way to capture most of the upside. gl;hf