From Monthly to Daily: Bitcoin’s Bullish Surge Above $100K
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I'm not a "to the Mooner", and when I thought Bitcoin was going down, I said so, even though I knew I'd get some negative comments.
I'm not a perma-bear either...
In fact, at the beginning of this month, I mentioned that the break under 60k is most probably a false break.
I try to stay as objective as possible, trading based on what I see rather than my biases, and right now everything I'm seeing looks extremely bullish
I'll break down my analysis from monthly to daily because I believe all signs point to Bitcoin reaching 100k or more by the end of the year.
Monthly Chart Analysis:
Starting with the monthly chart, although I'm not an Elliott Wave (EW) expert, it's quite clear that from the 15,500 bottom, we have an impulsive EW structure.
The first wave reached 31.5K, followed by a correction in the second wave down to 25K. Wave three then surged to 74K, and now we're experiencing the complex correction that typically characterizes wave four.
Going further with basic Elliott Wave (EW) theory, Wave 1 shows an approximate 100% increase from 15,500 to 31,500.
Wave 3 then surged from 25,000 to 74,000, an approximate 200% increase.
After a correction in Wave 4 down to 54,000, we can now project Wave 5 using these percentage movements.
Using the percentage increase of Wave 1 (100%) and applying it to the bottom of Wave 4 (54,000):
- A 1.0x extension of Wave 1’s percentage increase suggests Wave 5 could rise by approximately 54k (54,000 * 1.0), reaching a target above 100k.
- A more bullish scenario, using a 1.618 extension of Wave 1’s percentage increase, suggests Wave 5 could rise by approximately 90,000 (54,000 * 1.6), reaching a target of 144,000.
Therefore, considering these percentage movements and the high volatility of Bitcoin, the potential target for Wave 5 could be between 100k and 150k, depending on market conditions and the exact nature of Wave 5.
Weekly Chart Analysis:
Refining to the weekly chart, we observe a notable upward movement from 25 to 74, followed by a correction that forms a bullish flag pattern.
The bottom of this flag pattern aligns around the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, which is typical for flag formations.
Additionally, from a price action perspective, the last three weeks exhibit strong bullish tendencies, with the current week presenting a bullish continuation Pin Bar.
Applying the measured target for the flag pattern projects a value above 100k.
If we were to apply a percentage-based target similar to the wave analysis, it would suggest 150k, but it's prudent to hold off on that projection for now (though this would approximately equate to a 1.6 extension from the monthly wave analysis).
Daily Chart Analysis:
Zooming in further to the daily chart, we clearly see a false break followed by a reversal back above 60k.
The recent correction dropped to a horizontal support level, concluding with a Pin Bar. Adding to this, yesterday's bullish candle completes a strongly bullish Morning Star pattern, indicating a likely imminent break of the resistance level.
Overall Perspective and Conclusion:
Looking at Bitcoin's behavior from monthly down to daily charts, the outlook remains very positive.
The long-term wave analysis suggests significant growth potential. On the weekly chart, the bullish flag pattern points to further gains, and the daily chart's reversal patterns reinforce this bullish sentiment.
In summary, Bitcoin is showing strong signs of upward movement across all time frames. While conservative targets point to around 100k, the possibility of reaching 150k isn't off the table if the bullish trends continue.
As always, it's wise to watch for key resistance breaks to confirm these bullish projections.
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
I'm not a perma-bear either...
In fact, at the beginning of this month, I mentioned that the break under 60k is most probably a false break.
I try to stay as objective as possible, trading based on what I see rather than my biases, and right now everything I'm seeing looks extremely bullish
I'll break down my analysis from monthly to daily because I believe all signs point to Bitcoin reaching 100k or more by the end of the year.
Monthly Chart Analysis:
Starting with the monthly chart, although I'm not an Elliott Wave (EW) expert, it's quite clear that from the 15,500 bottom, we have an impulsive EW structure.
The first wave reached 31.5K, followed by a correction in the second wave down to 25K. Wave three then surged to 74K, and now we're experiencing the complex correction that typically characterizes wave four.
Going further with basic Elliott Wave (EW) theory, Wave 1 shows an approximate 100% increase from 15,500 to 31,500.
Wave 3 then surged from 25,000 to 74,000, an approximate 200% increase.
After a correction in Wave 4 down to 54,000, we can now project Wave 5 using these percentage movements.
Using the percentage increase of Wave 1 (100%) and applying it to the bottom of Wave 4 (54,000):
- A 1.0x extension of Wave 1’s percentage increase suggests Wave 5 could rise by approximately 54k (54,000 * 1.0), reaching a target above 100k.
- A more bullish scenario, using a 1.618 extension of Wave 1’s percentage increase, suggests Wave 5 could rise by approximately 90,000 (54,000 * 1.6), reaching a target of 144,000.
Therefore, considering these percentage movements and the high volatility of Bitcoin, the potential target for Wave 5 could be between 100k and 150k, depending on market conditions and the exact nature of Wave 5.
Weekly Chart Analysis:
Refining to the weekly chart, we observe a notable upward movement from 25 to 74, followed by a correction that forms a bullish flag pattern.
The bottom of this flag pattern aligns around the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, which is typical for flag formations.
Additionally, from a price action perspective, the last three weeks exhibit strong bullish tendencies, with the current week presenting a bullish continuation Pin Bar.
Applying the measured target for the flag pattern projects a value above 100k.
If we were to apply a percentage-based target similar to the wave analysis, it would suggest 150k, but it's prudent to hold off on that projection for now (though this would approximately equate to a 1.6 extension from the monthly wave analysis).
Daily Chart Analysis:
Zooming in further to the daily chart, we clearly see a false break followed by a reversal back above 60k.
The recent correction dropped to a horizontal support level, concluding with a Pin Bar. Adding to this, yesterday's bullish candle completes a strongly bullish Morning Star pattern, indicating a likely imminent break of the resistance level.
Overall Perspective and Conclusion:
Looking at Bitcoin's behavior from monthly down to daily charts, the outlook remains very positive.
The long-term wave analysis suggests significant growth potential. On the weekly chart, the bullish flag pattern points to further gains, and the daily chart's reversal patterns reinforce this bullish sentiment.
In summary, Bitcoin is showing strong signs of upward movement across all time frames. While conservative targets point to around 100k, the possibility of reaching 150k isn't off the table if the bullish trends continue.
As always, it's wise to watch for key resistance breaks to confirm these bullish projections.
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
Nota
I forgot to mention that, considering I'm correct and wave 5 will be similar to wave 1, we can assume it will also take the same time, so 6 months in this case.Considering it started in July, wave 5 will end in December.
Nota
BTC is approaching 70k important figure, but more importantly, it broke above flag's resistance.The next important resistance is 72 horizontal one
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