BTC Update Monthly Close SEPT
September was an important month for BTC as it finally broke below the bear flag channel that it formed off the June lows.
Things to note:
- Aug & Sept monthly candles both closed BELOW the 50EMA
- unable to get back inside the BF channel since it broke down from it late August
- June low @ 17.6K has held so far, but Dow, S&P & Nasdaq have ALL made lower lows, indicating that the cryptos may not be far behind (all markets move together)
- the 100EMA is the next major support level @ 12.6K
My relief rally target to the upside is @ the 50EMA + the BF support line @ 22K - 23K.
Bear targets:
- Bear target #1 test June low as support @ 17.6k
- 100EMA support level @ 12.6K (could be the bottom so let's keep an open mind)
- Bear target #2 BF measured move @ 9k
- Macro bottom range $6,500 - $9,500
It wouldn't surprise me to see a quick move lower this week, followed by a bounce/relief rally into mid-October.
I'm still thinking we set a tradable bottom by the end of Oct/early Nov.
Cheers
Things to note:
- Aug & Sept monthly candles both closed BELOW the 50EMA
- unable to get back inside the BF channel since it broke down from it late August
- June low @ 17.6K has held so far, but Dow, S&P & Nasdaq have ALL made lower lows, indicating that the cryptos may not be far behind (all markets move together)
- the 100EMA is the next major support level @ 12.6K
My relief rally target to the upside is @ the 50EMA + the BF support line @ 22K - 23K.
Bear targets:
- Bear target #1 test June low as support @ 17.6k
- 100EMA support level @ 12.6K (could be the bottom so let's keep an open mind)
- Bear target #2 BF measured move @ 9k
- Macro bottom range $6,500 - $9,500
It wouldn't surprise me to see a quick move lower this week, followed by a bounce/relief rally into mid-October.
I'm still thinking we set a tradable bottom by the end of Oct/early Nov.
Cheers
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