Quick IQ test

17 feb 2019

Do you think Bitcoin bottomed at 3000$?
If you answered anything but YES, congratulations you passed!

Imagine Bitcoin being THIS OBVIOUS, and people still struggle and are afraid to miss their chance to buy and miss the ride.






Think they're going to wait for the price to reach the trendline to decide to sell?


Log chart also can be used


Pushing in such a hurry to get in because they are so afraid to miss out getting rekt:


Of course all this trying to catch the bottom is incredibly stupid but is it even worth it?
Even if we assume you are the god of luck...


You make twice the returns, but it takes twice as long. It's not even worth it even if you had insider info or a crystal ball.
What's the point rofl?

My first trade/investment when I knew nothing I just draw a stupid simple line bought and doubled my money. Oh la la that was hard.
A TODDLER could make money investing. How are people failing?
Oh all these clowns don't risk buying in a uptrend, they wait for all the trendlines to be lost to get in.

Are they for real? They hate so much something that is not 100% that they decided to go for 0%? "I am sure of losing, at least I have certainty in something"

We are all living in an alien sitcom right? Brb going to teach my dog how to invest he will outperform crypto twitter.

It works with every retail market. So crypto and stocks and gold. Not sure about the rest.




Even a goldfish I am sure can recognize higher highs and higher lows.
I am a "counter trend" trader. But I still go with the trend. I like to go on retraces on a lower timeframe and join the higher time frame. I like to buy say on 0.618 fib, so WITH the trend, but on 0.618 this means against the retrace trend.
NOT going to BUY on 1.5 fib, or buy something AFTER the weekly candle closed way below the trendline.
OH MY this is absolutely idiotic.

Are these people for real? Should we report them to the authorities.

And it does not even end up here. They can't do what a toddler does and still take themselves seriously.
Are people roleplaying homer simpson? Hmmm the price just crashed, the uptrend is over, I think it's a perfect time to buy.
I bought pumkins in october I expect the price to peak riiight in March (;>).

I do not even know if I should be laughing or really depressed. Man I already gave up on trading the stock market, it just all goes in the same direction and in straight lines for months and months, crypto is too dumb I can't handle it. Maybe I should go get hammered I need to forget...

About gold btw

Not always clear, not always wins too obviously...
Some lines you only see in hindsight but when a trend has been going on for 2 years....
It is not always perfect also, can get chopped up.

For tech stocks it is crystal clear thought. Would not touch it with a stick. If people buy and the price goes up they are still awful and got extremely lucky.


But seriously anyone that sees a uptrend or downtrend and just decides to go against it because "muh bottom" (not talking about quick trades or value investing) has some serious brain issues.
Maybe people are into BDSM? That would explain it.

Noob markets. Give me something that looks awful, zig zags all over the place and has no clear trend, oh yes miam




Why would anyway TRADE noob markets? How do people LOSE money when investing? It's so easy it hurts. When you are not greedy and impatient that is... That's why Buffet is always laughing I bet, people are wondering how they could possibly make it and he barely even tries.



This was meant as humor but it is Sunday and 5 am so idk how it is going to come out :p
Ye just keep it simple. It really simple on the chart side. Please no 4 oscillators + BB and heikinhishakinsjsjdinjfdghfjfbfb.

17 feb 2019

Nota

Not every one passes the test. Here are a few cringy posts.

This guy has been calling strong structure every $1000 for the past 12 months.
I assume he will keep calling strong structure until 0? He's bound to be right eventually?

That one, "the legend" keeps changing his mind while BTC lays flat. "Going down 100% no up no down no nevermind up the bottom is in because reasons."

"What we know FOR SURE is that Bitcoin is undervalued"
Oh, right.
"Lets think that bitcoin will repeat the cycle as it will do."
His cristal ball told him ;)

Ah, the famous "fractals". I heard the top star traders in funds and at goldman sachs threw a dice to choose what chart and what part of the chart to pick then copy pasted it on another chart and that's how they made their decisions. Also, opening a chicken and reading in his guts."

Anyone remember this guy? After being wrong nearly 1 year ago he annonced he was quitting TV for a while, then came back. This is his last trade. I think he might have killed himself.

This one, at least he is giving you 2 choices.
Choice 1: Price goes up
Choice 2: Price goes up

I am not even going to mention Excavo and Allanmaster ideas :)
They have reached the next step in trolling.


A few underatted posts from "idiots that have no idea what they are talking about" from a while ago:

Exactly 1 year in 4 days

Notice how the crypto bulls that were so wrong are the ones posting nonsense fractals and troll EW counts and never change their mind or even give 2 possibilities.

18 feb 2019

Nota

Afraid the price might rip up? There are not that many detailled examples, but up until now what we have seen are bottoms that last a really long time (at least 6 months). Bitcoin has only been "bottoming" for 2 months. The odds are probably low for it to rip up now.

A few examples of bottoms:




I do not have that many examples, the sample size is not that big. We could find alot of examples but all correlated so they do not mean much.
Add to that, of course, the bubbles that bottomed for 100-500 years (Tulips South Sea, Mississipi, Ostrich feathers...)
In counter examples the price fell so much:


There are many more examples, but who has a chart of the AD 33 loan crisis of rome? I bet if we did the research we could recreate it. If I make it I'll dedicate some $$$ to drawing charts from our 10000 years of financial crisis and bubbles.

As for Bitcoin now,


Btw, this is from a text in 1887
"
During the retreat of the Emperor Tiberius at Capreae,
A.D. 33, Rome was visited by a crisis in the money market
so severe and obstinate that credit was at last restored only
by the direct intervention of the emperor, who advanced one
hundred million sesterces (about four million dollars) from
the treasury, in the shape of loans without interest to indi-
vidual debtors; an occurrence which calls to mind the pur-
chase of bonds by our Treasury department, for the purpose
of relieving the money market during the panic of I873.
"
This is so interesting. Also, hilarous.

18 feb 2019

Nota

The people comparing 2015 bears to today are so wrong. It is so obvious.
You seriously had to be pretty disabled to short Bitcoin as it was going up like Lord Ashdrake did.

charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/cbe65

EVERY ONE got in at the top or after the bubble popped ;)
I would be willing to bet that more than 99% of BagH0DLers got in above $1000.
The interest went up so much... 200 million in a week to 100 billion... The average for 2018 is 42 Billion (manipulated?), 250 times 2014-2015 volume (which was 170MM on average).
A crypto discord server I was on exploded in december 2017. All these newbies were teaching me how to trade and what crypto to invest in. Actually even "urging" me to buy before it was too late. I got no update since they dropped 90% thought. Ye thanks for the tip shoe shine boy, too bad I missed out being stubborn hey. Poor crypto discord is dead now :(

I wonder how many of the hordes of top buyers are bagH0DLing now? Are they going to hold tight for 10 years?
Craig Wright the autistic guy with mental issues says he plans to dump.
There are so many people that bought at 5000+ actually. We should make a poll.
There SO MANY student loan fraudsters that bought crypto with loans. They won't be able to bagHODL forever... unless they like jail idk, their bank accounts will get frozen or?

It is pretty shocking to see these volumes really. I can't believe THAT many people joined late.

Now that the shoe shine boys all "dollar cost averaged" and "bought the dip" between December 2017 and late 2018, and are in the red, what next?

I really am so curious to see how it turns out. A shame it will take years.

18 feb 2019

Nota

1 year ago "haha you fool Bitcoin will NEVER fall below $6000" "You are just angry you did not make any money" "I am screenshooting this you will see history will not be kind to you" "I will remember every last word you say and spit them out back to your face in 1 year when Litecoin goes to $1000" etc.

1 year later "Why are you bashing on crypto so much?" "Why are you still stuck on something that happened 1 year ago?"

Cringe. Spineless hypocritical scum. I will laugh so hard if Bitcoin goes 3 digits.

I predicted this btw (not that it was not obvious this would happen)

19 feb 2019

Nota

Hurrah, Bitcoin shorts dropped back to their lowest level since November 12, a victory for the bulls.
Maybe they fall to zero, and then go negative. Maybe not.

22 feb 2019

Nota

So apparently Bitcoin futures went skyrocketing in volume the 19.
I saw a twitter crypto shill with 13k follower post that "something big will happen". I assume he means something positive. I could be wrong, but they always make these assumptions. There are others too, saying that institutional investors are stepping in (my brain hurts).
I wonder how many others will react like this. If I see a single professional managing other people money make such a tweet I am reporting him to the SEC.

Ok so if you think someone took a huge bet in Bitcoin price rising let me teach you a few important lessons:
1- 14/02 Open interest at close = 3,246
15/02 Open interest at close = 3,507
19/02 Open interest at close = 3,964
20/02 Open interest at close = 3,863
21/02 Open interest at close = 3,735

Barely anything happened.

2- If you type "bitcoin historical open interest" in google you will find historical charts of open interest / sentiment and alot of data.
Here is the sentiment:
Funds - neutral / slightly short
Others - sell
Small - buy (very much)

Definitions:
Funds(leveraged funds) - These are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers
Other(Other Reportables) - Reportable traders(ie big professional traders)
Small(Non Reportable) - Traders below reportable limit(ie small unprofessional traders) (Mr Renev translation: noobs that are always wrong)

3- Dear lord. Futures. For every buy there is a sell. Like, do I even have to explain. The CME is not a casino or bookie. They are an exchange, matching buyers and sellers (with the help of market makers so it all stays quick and cheap). 16000 futures exchanged in a day does not mean someone took a 300 million bet on Bitcoin price going up and "something will happen where bitcoin price magically follows the obscure futures move".

4- Before that the highest volume was at a top :) Bitcoin crashed 30% (from 8500 to 5800) after a few days up there in that same area around 8500, just like it is doing now around 3900 (not saying it will happen again, just using a counter argument).



5- When you want confirmation of CME data you do not look for tweets of "OG's" or the "news" (since when are the news reliable they spend all their time lying). No you go to the CME site directly. It is very well done (unlike the ICE one...).

6- Usually more than half futures participants are "commercial" meaning they do not speculate but just protect themselves against price speculation, but in the case of Bitcoin... It's different. Take the T-notes, 10 year, they have ridiculous volumes of 200-300 billion (last days 1 to 4 million contracts), the open interest has stayed at 4.2 million this whole time. For wheat, same story, traded volumes re about 170k-250k and open interest hoovering around 480k.
Live cattle, volumes of 50-70k, open interest stuck on 390k. No one speculated on live cattle prices.
So I am assuming here, but the more speculators, the lower open interest is compared to daily volume. The lowest I know of is Bitcoin. It looks like no one is using Bitcoin futures to hedge, but just to speculate intraday.
(Oil open interest is about twice its volume & Gold 50% more btw)

So these are the basics. And no, the futures market has no super hidden powers that move Bitcoin price. Bitcoin CME prices are tagged to the gemini exchange (they follow it) I think, so... Actually the other way around.

22 feb 2019

Nota

Lmao found out why the volume I think.
Thuesday at open Bitcoin price was ~3850 but the futures opened at 3600 (after closing the previous week at 3560).
I wish I knew. Would have arbitraged that so hard.
Ye I'm pretty sure that's your "record volume for Bitcoin" "Institutional interest is very high".
Lmao ye of course institutional interest is very high if they get a free arbitrage opportunity like this. Literally free money. I am frustrated I didn't get my piece of the cake.
Correct me if I am wrong thought.

(How it works: Buy 27777 Bitcoin priced 3600 for 100 million dollar at 0 am Thuesday as fast as you can before anyone else, and sell on bitmex for 100 million 3850 each, wait and find ways to use all your money. You just made 7 million just for noticing the gap). Man...

"Q1 is off to a strong start" "Institutional money is stepping in" Lmao they failed the IQ test.

"Institutional interest has gradually risen and the number of LOIHs (Large Open Interest Holders) has been holding steady around 43 holders since November. A LOIH is an entity that holds at least 25 BTC contracts."
==> YES THEY ARE MOSTLY SHORT AS WE CAN SEE VERY EASILLY. LOL.

They're actually retarded...

25 feb 2019

Nota

"Bitcoin weekly MA50 and MA100 have crossed this is a bearish cross however they indicate the end of a bear market"
- Based on this happening with Bitcoin in the past, which is literally once.

Ye... WMA50 and 100 crossover indicate bottoms, on spot.
















Textbook denial "My investments are great they will come back"
All these fund managers, crypto OG's on social networks, journalists, are in denial but at the same time seem scared and desperate to convince people to buy.

Today I saw a reddit post where a guy down 70% was asking how he can scam/profit from new investors joining the ponzi (of course he did not phrade it like that), it did not look like a troll, very amusing :D

There is no way this is not denial...

This is one of the worse dump on Bitcoin history, so what does this tell?
People using Bitcoin past to argue about "the bottom", should also consider this right?
























etc...

I have proven this has happened countless times, all the time, and I have more than ONE example to back it. Not like hundreds, but still, dozens, for Bitcoin alone.

I cba checking the rest right now, I think it almost always happens like this...



Let me shill my dump script, it's super simple. I think we can look for at least 15% drop on the 1 hour chart here.

If you don't have price alerts and look at the price all the time... Which is probably very few people :D

2 mar 2019

Nota

People are truly convinced Bitcoin bottomed.













The only exceptions are all markets that are NOT RETAIL, like sugar



So basically we have a market, that has the most retail investors that made their first investment BY FAR AND IN ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY, and people expect it to behave better than 300 years old markets dominated by professionals?
Quick IQ test...