BTC long-term prediction

23 lug 2023

Hi all,

After initial reflection on Bitcoin's long-term prospects (see link below), I would like to make a more detailed analaysis for it in the next two or three years.

Development cycles and characteristics

I'll devide the evolution of BTC into three main cycles:

• Cycle 0: From the birth of BTC until November 2021
  
• Cycle 1: From Nov 2011 to Nov 2018. In this cycle, we have observed two Halving events (November 28, 2012) and (July 9, 2016
  
• Cycle 2: From Nov 2018 to Nov 2025. This cycle encompasses the most recent halving event (May 11, 2020) and the upcoming one (April 26, 2024)
  

In every cycle, BTC has the following common price action

1. Main Trendline Support: it confirms the exponential increase in BTC's price.
   
2. Cycle High: it is intriguing to observe that Cycle Highs tend to materialize approximately 1 to 1.5 years after the halving event (or the birth) of BTC
   
3. Break-down event: It happened two times and both on November (2011 and in 2018). This marks the end of a cycle.
   

About historical BTC Highs

Since its birth, BTC has achieved four Cycle Highs. Connecting two consecutive Cycle Highs with a trendline reveals that the slope of this line is halved (devided by 2) between two Halving Events. This gradual decrease in slope appears rational and organic, as exponential growth is typically unsustainable. What's even more intriguing is that this 1:2 ratio aligns with the reduction of mined BTC by half after each Halving Event (or the block reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions).

Predictions for the next Halving and beyond

By considering the aforementioned characteristics in BTC's evolution, we can utilize historical patterns to provide potential insights into the future. Here's a possible scenario:

1. Leading up to the 4th Halving (scheduled for April 26, 2024), BTC prices are likely to align with the blue support trendline, and significant deviations from this trendline are not anticipated.
   
2. Following the 4th Halving, BTC may enter an accelerated phase, potentially triggering a major bull run.
   
3. A new price high could be achieved somewhere between May and September 2025, based on historical averages of the time needed for BTC to reach a new high after halving.
   
4. This new price high is projected to be approximately 120k.
5. However, it's essential to note that a subsequent bear market is expected to follow, possibly manifesting in November 2025. During this phase, BTC may experience a gradual decline, with prices potentially dropping as low as 30k.

It's vital to remember that predicting the future with certainty in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is challenging and often speculative. These projections are based on historical trends and patterns but are subject to various unpredictable factors.

What do you think about this analysis and what is your price prediction for BTC in the next bullrun?

25 lug 2023

Nota

Here is the zoom on the current movement. In some months, I expect that BTC will retest the support around 24k. It's important to note that chart is presented in weekly timeframe without taking into account for wicks. I'll not be supprised if there's a wick to 20k.

22 ago 2023

Nota

As analysed above, BTC moved down from 30k to test the support area above 24k. Break this support, the next and strong one is the cycle support trendline (blue one). I'll accumulate BTC below 24k or when it's close to the support trendline, before the halving, a priori.

22 set 2023

Nota

BTC bounces abit when prices touched the neckline (around $26000). However, it seems that we have a double top pattern, this is bearish (in short term) for BTC. I'll buy dips if this comes.

26 ott 2023

Nota

The double-top hypothesis was no longer valid. BTC made a strong pump last week. My long-term strategy is still: DCA and buy dips when prices drop to the blue support trendline.

11 nov 2023

Nota

I would like to zoom on the recent moves of BTC which are very remarkable. BTC had jumped 40% in three weeks, impressive! The next resistance, for me, is $42000 (equivalent to Fib. 0.618 level). Here a my view for the next months:
- Distribution around $36000-$42000
- BTC would retest Fib 0.318 level and possible the long-term trendline as well

3 mar

Nota

Since the validation of Bitcoin ETFs, prices have increased, impressively. I think that even the most bulls would not think that BTC move would be that fast. My mid-term reference scenario (see above) didn't happen. I'm now coming back to the original and my long-term plan. I'll consider to take profit at the upper limit of the yellow wedge and I'll buy more at the lower one. That's simple.

17 lug

Nota

The estimated movement is lagged behind the reality (due to BTC ETF?) but the channel with its support/resistance trendlines is still applicable.