Looking at past history and also where BTC price is right now, it appears there's 2 patterns/paths BTC price could take over the next month.
Scenrario #1: BTC is currently looking at forming a flag right now on the daily. If price remains strong this next retrace could see btc price break upwards out of the flag with an early bullish run through mid december into January with a local top sometime in January. i.e. the bigger 50% pullback happens in January.
Scenario #2: If price shows weakness and loses the recent low level, my thinking is we will potentially see the bigger 50% retrace in December and only see a resumption of the bullish trend in the new year.
Scenario #1 to me is better as it hints at higher targets (next local top could be ~140k). Scenario #2 means there's more volatility and hence a better opportunity to take some profits and get in before we get the next leg up. This next leg could be good for alts.
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