Bitcoin large timeframe trend
10,00 foot level look here at Bitcoin.
As much as I want a 130-180k BTC I don’t really see it playing out that way just yet. I will have sold in waves (and have been) as we approach 110k. At 110k I will have only a small portion of BTC and other crypto holdings as runners.
Some of the math I have run does see 116k at the peak, some 133k when I take BTC price at halvings to their peak in each of the 4 year epochs using logarithmic amplitude decay and some even go as high as 150k in bull math…yep, bull math.
In the chart, I will first address the ridiculous parallel line structures. The red and orange lines started out as just trying to find bearish channels, supports and resistance back in June of 2023. What I had found was that I could clone the lines, keeping them at the exact same angle and they would hit major clusters of candle groupings quite well. I then tried to find a similar patterns with the blue lines and although not quite as consistent, they certainly do capture touch points I cannot ignore. This is a weekly chart so I can capture the entire idea in one panel but when I take this to a daily chart the touch points become more evident. I wouldn’t necessarily make trades based on the parallel lines but they do help me see some trends.
Now, focusing on the green and red arrows;...they represent percentage gains from the bottom of the bear to peak of the bull run and vise versa. Going back to the math I mention above I have taken a similar approach to come up with the 600-ish% gain from November 2022 lows. That gives us a 5x return…or at least for the one fella that has an average cost basis of 15.5k😊. Draw downs have also shrunk in each peak to valley. The 58% draw down is based on the same reduced volatility type math, however, without knowing what the peak bull (or time frame of peak next year, which in and of itself is an assumption) we get into grey territory. Interestingly though, it is a fact that the angle of the draw downs do increasingly get more vertically pronounced in each of the cycles as time goes on. This is of course because I am capturing a huge timeframe in one shot but visually interesting to me all the same. The draw down out of frame from peak November 2013 to January 2015 is 87%.
Next, focusing on the purple trend line from peak 2017 through the 2021 highs and forward is a straight forward projection to 2025 highs. One could argue (quite rightly) that this should be more of a parabola. A parabolic idea is represented with the opaque purple trend line on the far left that starts at the bull peak post 2012 halving to peak post 2016 halving. The opaque purple line from peak 2021 forward is a repeat of the difference in angle increase from 2017 peak to 2021 when compared to the previous 2013-2017. I know that’s a mouthful…I read this more than once while looking at my chart to see if I spelled out my train of thought correctly too😊. Now, that opaque trend line from 2021 forward can put BTC up near 140K by next year and as I mentioned above, I will have a portion of my holdings still in play to capture the price action if this does play out.
Last is fairly self explanatory. The black lines note the lows after each halving. The 2024 and 2028 are obviously projections and will be adjusted as the years play out…just a bit of fun there, although visually the ratios look good. Purple boxes are accumulation zones for building in the bear. 2026-27 again will likely need to be adjusted but visually it tracks as a ratio compared with past zones.
I realize that this sort of analysis is a little unconventional and rather cluttered but I wanted to share all the same. Good luck to all out there and all the best. Cheers.
As much as I want a 130-180k BTC I don’t really see it playing out that way just yet. I will have sold in waves (and have been) as we approach 110k. At 110k I will have only a small portion of BTC and other crypto holdings as runners.
Some of the math I have run does see 116k at the peak, some 133k when I take BTC price at halvings to their peak in each of the 4 year epochs using logarithmic amplitude decay and some even go as high as 150k in bull math…yep, bull math.
In the chart, I will first address the ridiculous parallel line structures. The red and orange lines started out as just trying to find bearish channels, supports and resistance back in June of 2023. What I had found was that I could clone the lines, keeping them at the exact same angle and they would hit major clusters of candle groupings quite well. I then tried to find a similar patterns with the blue lines and although not quite as consistent, they certainly do capture touch points I cannot ignore. This is a weekly chart so I can capture the entire idea in one panel but when I take this to a daily chart the touch points become more evident. I wouldn’t necessarily make trades based on the parallel lines but they do help me see some trends.
Now, focusing on the green and red arrows;...they represent percentage gains from the bottom of the bear to peak of the bull run and vise versa. Going back to the math I mention above I have taken a similar approach to come up with the 600-ish% gain from November 2022 lows. That gives us a 5x return…or at least for the one fella that has an average cost basis of 15.5k😊. Draw downs have also shrunk in each peak to valley. The 58% draw down is based on the same reduced volatility type math, however, without knowing what the peak bull (or time frame of peak next year, which in and of itself is an assumption) we get into grey territory. Interestingly though, it is a fact that the angle of the draw downs do increasingly get more vertically pronounced in each of the cycles as time goes on. This is of course because I am capturing a huge timeframe in one shot but visually interesting to me all the same. The draw down out of frame from peak November 2013 to January 2015 is 87%.
Next, focusing on the purple trend line from peak 2017 through the 2021 highs and forward is a straight forward projection to 2025 highs. One could argue (quite rightly) that this should be more of a parabola. A parabolic idea is represented with the opaque purple trend line on the far left that starts at the bull peak post 2012 halving to peak post 2016 halving. The opaque purple line from peak 2021 forward is a repeat of the difference in angle increase from 2017 peak to 2021 when compared to the previous 2013-2017. I know that’s a mouthful…I read this more than once while looking at my chart to see if I spelled out my train of thought correctly too😊. Now, that opaque trend line from 2021 forward can put BTC up near 140K by next year and as I mentioned above, I will have a portion of my holdings still in play to capture the price action if this does play out.
Last is fairly self explanatory. The black lines note the lows after each halving. The 2024 and 2028 are obviously projections and will be adjusted as the years play out…just a bit of fun there, although visually the ratios look good. Purple boxes are accumulation zones for building in the bear. 2026-27 again will likely need to be adjusted but visually it tracks as a ratio compared with past zones.
I realize that this sort of analysis is a little unconventional and rather cluttered but I wanted to share all the same. Good luck to all out there and all the best. Cheers.
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