Wait for pullback, at least

Morning folks,

We do not want to upset you, but our opinion that recent upside action is not the major reversal yet. Mostly it is not achievement of BTC market but the weakness of the US Dollar due recent CPI report. BTC shows much weaker reaction compares to the FX market, which makes it similar to the Gold and Interest rates market.

As dollar stands oversold right now on daily chart and BTC stands at strong 1H chart resistance, we suggest two downside scenarios. The light one is just the pullback, at least to 42K area before BTC tries to reach 46K target. And the heavy one - BTC could even keep downside action to our next target of 36.5K. Both of them suggest downside action, although of different kind.

With the view on higher time frames - we do not see reasons yet to invest in BTC. The only move above 48-49K could become the first hint that something positive is going on, as a lot of bearish moments exist right now around the different time frames.