Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin (BTCUSD) are denominated in U.S. dollars. When the U.S. dollar is strong, the price of tokens is weak, and when the U.S. dollar is weak, the tokens are strong. The trend of the U.S. dollar is mainly affected by the Fed’s monetary policy and changes in market sentiment.
In terms of news: In 2022, affected by strong inflation factors, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates aggressively, which will greatly promote the rise of the US dollar, and risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and US stocks will continue to weaken. Near the end of the year, U.S. inflation has dropped significantly, which proves that the decline in energy prices and the Fed’s interest rate hike have achieved substantial results. The expectation that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes has become increasingly strong.
The cryptocurrency market, which has fallen to the bottom, finally ushered in the long-lost good news, and swept away the haze of the FTX bankruptcy affecting the entire industry, and Bitcoin led the rebound.
Entering April, heavy inflation data such as CPI, PPI, retail sales and PCE price index in the United States continued to show a downward trend, indicating that the Fed does not need to maintain interest rates at such a high level as inflation continues to decline in the United States. Weakening interest rate hike expectations continue to drive bitcoin prices higher. With the sudden US and European banking crisis in March, investors expressed concern about the traditional banking industry and turned their attention to the cryptocurrency market with the concept of "decentralization". Cryptocurrency and gold have taken on the role of safe-haven assets together. This facilitated a recovery in the price of the token.
Against the backdrop of falling U.S. inflation and the end of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle, cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed out, and the situation turned to tailwinds. It is believed that Bitcoin will reach the HKEX:30 ,000 mark again in the near future, and the overall trend of tokens will enter a new round of rise.
Bitcoin Technology Trends: The main reason is that the reference price is around HKEX:30 ,000. If it holds steady here, it is expected to continue to look towards 31000. The current fall below 29000 is only a short-term adjustment. Then the adjusted support level is temporarily at 27200-27800. You can consider whether to go short based on the current market situation. As long as you take a step back and do not make a breakthrough, it is an opportunity to buy. Capped targets can be seen at 30,000. If it holds steady here, it is expected to continue to look towards 31000.
Operational strategy: short at 29000, TP27200-27800, long at 27200-27800, TP30000
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