Macro Fibonacci level analysis
Looking at the charts this morning I have noticed that BTCUSD is at a very important level in regards to Fibonacci retracements and also Fibonacci Speed Resistance Fans. I think this could well be the top where we reject this run, or if we break out above roughly 10k we could well break the macro downtrend on btc and continue this bullish momentum, possibly to new all time high's.
Chart 1 - Shows that BTC is testing the .618 Retracement level at $10048, this Fib retrace runs from the recent top in June 2019 to the capitulation bottom of March 2020. This level has been tested 3 times suggesting it could be weakening. Price action also seems to be printing a Broadening Descending Wedge pattern.
Chart 2 - Shows a similar scenario to chart 1, this Fib retrace is from the all time high, to the bottom of December 2018. As you can see BTC is testing the .618 again, a very important level.
Chart 3 - Shows BTC retraced to the .618 level recently with the capitulation in March 2020, this bounce off the .618 should make BTC's target the -.272 level at $20826 which would make a new ATH
Chart 4 - Fib speed resistance fan. (Log and Linear charts show almost identical values on this fan) These tools measure the strength of trends, if price is closer to the red, the downtrend is strong and fast, as price moves up further towards blue, the downtrend is slower and weaker. Similar to Fib retrace tool, the .618 is considered to be the strongest level. A price break above the .75 line and the downtrend is considered to be over
Here you can see that we have broken the .618 line, and are continuing upwards towards the .75, meaning the downtrend is very weak.
Chart 5 - Fan running from All time high, to the 2018 Bottom, on LOG scale. Price has recently moved above the .618 and is heading towards the .75, as you can see this fan has been very well respected since the bottom of 2018. A break above .75 and the downtrend is considered to be over.
Chart 6 - Same exact fan as chart 5 but on Linear scale. This shows that we've broken out of the downtrend currently. It is slightly clearer on the daily chart, (chart 7)
Chart 7 - This is the same fan as chart 6 zoomed in. You can see that Btc has been bouncing between the bottom (.618) and the top (.75) lines for the last 315 days. Btc had never had a daily close above that .75 fan line in 511 days since the bottom in 2018, until yesterday.
Given that all of these levels line up so coincidentally around the time of the halving, this says to me, BTC either breaks out of this macro downtrend and starts its next bull cycle, which is historically what happens after the halving. Or we reject heavily from this level, given the confluence of resistance.
There's is obviously many other indicators and levels to consider, though these ones seem to paint a nice clear picture for me and it is what i will be looking at going forward.
Chart 1 - Shows that BTC is testing the .618 Retracement level at $10048, this Fib retrace runs from the recent top in June 2019 to the capitulation bottom of March 2020. This level has been tested 3 times suggesting it could be weakening. Price action also seems to be printing a Broadening Descending Wedge pattern.
Chart 2 - Shows a similar scenario to chart 1, this Fib retrace is from the all time high, to the bottom of December 2018. As you can see BTC is testing the .618 again, a very important level.
Chart 3 - Shows BTC retraced to the .618 level recently with the capitulation in March 2020, this bounce off the .618 should make BTC's target the -.272 level at $20826 which would make a new ATH
Chart 4 - Fib speed resistance fan. (Log and Linear charts show almost identical values on this fan) These tools measure the strength of trends, if price is closer to the red, the downtrend is strong and fast, as price moves up further towards blue, the downtrend is slower and weaker. Similar to Fib retrace tool, the .618 is considered to be the strongest level. A price break above the .75 line and the downtrend is considered to be over
Here you can see that we have broken the .618 line, and are continuing upwards towards the .75, meaning the downtrend is very weak.
Chart 5 - Fan running from All time high, to the 2018 Bottom, on LOG scale. Price has recently moved above the .618 and is heading towards the .75, as you can see this fan has been very well respected since the bottom of 2018. A break above .75 and the downtrend is considered to be over.
Chart 6 - Same exact fan as chart 5 but on Linear scale. This shows that we've broken out of the downtrend currently. It is slightly clearer on the daily chart, (chart 7)
Chart 7 - This is the same fan as chart 6 zoomed in. You can see that Btc has been bouncing between the bottom (.618) and the top (.75) lines for the last 315 days. Btc had never had a daily close above that .75 fan line in 511 days since the bottom in 2018, until yesterday.
Given that all of these levels line up so coincidentally around the time of the halving, this says to me, BTC either breaks out of this macro downtrend and starts its next bull cycle, which is historically what happens after the halving. Or we reject heavily from this level, given the confluence of resistance.
There's is obviously many other indicators and levels to consider, though these ones seem to paint a nice clear picture for me and it is what i will be looking at going forward.
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