BTC - The bear market has (surely) arrived, 42k is next
05.01.2022, 11PM UTC ---
When markets are near ATH while the global sentiment is leaning towards fear, it's clearly the worst time to go long. That's why you shouldn't trust the publications in the "most popular" tab, as they are just trying to sell you hope while blindly trusting their own TA and completely ignoring the global context (and their TA has been repeatedly wrong because they are clearly biased to the upside, which blinded them from seeing the price action was clearly extremely weak.)
Today's breakdown was caused by a NASDAQ dip of roughly -3.50%, confirming my impression that despite retesting recent ATH, the stock market is in a state of fear because of inflation and potential interest rate hikes to come this year.
I used to still be bullish until very recently, but buying the dip right now is dangerous, as we might be entering a bear market: as you can see on the above chart (logarithmic scale, 1W time frame) we had broken below this bull run's dynamic support (that carried us since early 2020), retested it and got rejected from the 52k area, right below the CRUCIAL 53K support. This was already a big red flag. Now this week, we are clearly falling off from the 50W MA, which has also been a fundamental support during the bull run. Finally, on the Phoenix Ascending indicator we can see that the fast green MA and red RSI are already very low, close to 20, and the blue slower least square MA is about to go below 50 as well (very likely as both green & RSI are already low). All of that means, long-term downward expansion is coming. These are too many red flags to ignore, and most prudent traders have probably already bailed out for now at least. The next logical target would be 42k, which corresponds to the upper (yellow) boundary of the falling wedge that we had broken out of before getting rejected at 52k. If that level fails, then 40k is next, which is another important (obvious) support line.
When markets are near ATH while the global sentiment is leaning towards fear, it's clearly the worst time to go long. That's why you shouldn't trust the publications in the "most popular" tab, as they are just trying to sell you hope while blindly trusting their own TA and completely ignoring the global context (and their TA has been repeatedly wrong because they are clearly biased to the upside, which blinded them from seeing the price action was clearly extremely weak.)
Today's breakdown was caused by a NASDAQ dip of roughly -3.50%, confirming my impression that despite retesting recent ATH, the stock market is in a state of fear because of inflation and potential interest rate hikes to come this year.
I used to still be bullish until very recently, but buying the dip right now is dangerous, as we might be entering a bear market: as you can see on the above chart (logarithmic scale, 1W time frame) we had broken below this bull run's dynamic support (that carried us since early 2020), retested it and got rejected from the 52k area, right below the CRUCIAL 53K support. This was already a big red flag. Now this week, we are clearly falling off from the 50W MA, which has also been a fundamental support during the bull run. Finally, on the Phoenix Ascending indicator we can see that the fast green MA and red RSI are already very low, close to 20, and the blue slower least square MA is about to go below 50 as well (very likely as both green & RSI are already low). All of that means, long-term downward expansion is coming. These are too many red flags to ignore, and most prudent traders have probably already bailed out for now at least. The next logical target would be 42k, which corresponds to the upper (yellow) boundary of the falling wedge that we had broken out of before getting rejected at 52k. If that level fails, then 40k is next, which is another important (obvious) support line.
Nota
additional comment: I bet it always seems "too early" to call bear market, and we all think we're still in a bull market until it's obvious to everybody that we're in a bear market... you feel me. This is why you gotta act before waiting for a "confirmation" from influencers or what not, because it's already too late. And this is why (imo) you wanna look at long term dynamic bull supports like those I mentioned above, and global context, rather than focusing on short term TA and being biased to the upside
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.