Bitcoin bounce may be short-lived (double top)

11 mar 2018

Got this idea as Bitcoin has been falling for six days --- the last time it had 6 red candles was from the top, a 50% fall in 6 days.

Obviously, this fall hasn't been as dramatic, merely 25% in 6 days, but there're other similarities:

• Last time, after 6 red candles, we bounced at 50D MA; this time, it was 200D, after three days flirting with it. This makes it look like a technical bounce instead of real demand.
  
• We had confirmed double top three days ago (neckline 9.6k) that hasn't been broken & target not reached.
  
• We're still below 50D MA.
  
• Still below long-term trend line (should be a resistance now).
  
• Of course that downward channel.
  
• The overall volume is still low & on the daily chart we aren't really oversold.
  

For these reasons, I don't think bitcoin will go above 10k. Instead, 7.5k, 6k, & 3.5k are three targets I think more likely to play out.

Having said all that, this is a funny market more than bitcoin is funny money. Maybe it's the beginning of an extremely bullish rally to 100k.

12 mar 2018

Nota

the question is which of the targets will be the lowest.

14 mar 2018

Nota

definitively under 200D MA

will crash to 6k at least

14 mar 2018

Nota

may see some green in the next 24h before the crash. 200d sma will be the high

14 mar 2018

Nota

I meant the highest possible high. could very well be lower than that

15 mar 2018

Nota

indeed a "green" day. but we're stuck at .386. I think the crash will come soon.

perhaps by sunday we'll see 6k