BTC At Major Resistance, Regulatory Headwinds Remain

14 apr 2023

Seems like we are hitting a strong bearish divergence here. Breaking down from this triangle would likely mean we go to at least 20-25k, and breaking down from that support could mean we go under 16k, and likely head towards 10k. Still seems probable that Microstrategy/Saylor are forced out of at least most of their position, more so than they already have been (via dilutive equity sales).

Regulatory and systemic headwinds from the US are still weighing on the market as well, and we could see more attacks on the industry coming from the SEC, CFTC, etc. Coinbase recently received a wells notice, which means they are likely going to be sued by the SEC in the near future. This could continue to put a major damper on new money flowing in from the US.

16 apr 2023

Nota

Many people may not like that I am bearish now (this is a good sign), but wave-x here has strong evidence in its favor, especially and in particular from a wave theory standpoint. If we had started a new bull run as I predicted when BTC was at 16k, then we would have seen a wave much stronger compared to wave-b. Since this wave is significantly weaker, it's likely wave-x and the chances of an extended bull run here are very low. While wave-x may have a tiny bit more upside left in it, the chances of a full retracement of wave-x and this bear market extending into early 2024 are very high.

Furthermore, out of all the counts me and Glenn Neely have analyzed together, this one puts us closest to the middle. Based on the rule of reverse logic the count closest to the middle is the most likely. That combined with wave-x being much weaker than wave-b, significant momentum divergences on multiple timeframes, regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds, major holders with over-leveraged exposure, and technical resistance zones, and we are set for a full retracement of this wave before the end of the year.

What we are going to see following wave-x will probably be another diametric or possibly a different corrective pattern, such as a contracting triangle. This should take us down to at least 10k and extend into early 2024.