BitcoinAggiornato BTC: Update
Now that the dust has settled, things become much clearer and simpler to explain. Here's my personal take on Bitcoin's current situation and beyond the technical.
With the recent run, we now have four solid 'legs' to form a temporary channel that we can work with. Current max. downside is around 8.5k, while the upside is limited to around 10.9k (11.2k at the most). All you need to watch out for are 'weekly' candles (solids) forming below or above the 'weekly' formation upper trend line (zoom out to reveal the formation). Candles forming below the line will hint for a retreat to much lower levels by Spring of next year, and candles forming above will hint for a possible upward continuation (unlikely). We will know for sure by mid-to-end of December.
I normally use the usual MA suspects of 20/50/200, but in this case I've adjusted them to values more suitable for round-the-clock trading assets. It's important to note the interplay between these averages on the 'weekly' chart, especially between crossings. Many believe the so called "death cross" to be happening right now, while its actually displaced to spring of next year when using the right 'weekly' values. Interesting to watch will be the 3-2-1 cross play which always checks out unless the stock is new.
I'd like to add an additional important factor, which has been noticed only by some professional chartists out there, but ignored by most. And that is last week's lower lower. This, and consistent lower highs are a clear signal that there won't be any further uptrend past this formation, but rather the "consensual desire" of reaching new lows. Traders with years of experience know only too well how simple yet important this sign is. I feel silly even mentioning this. The 'weekly' PSAR series has been corrupted with the first drop, which already checks off any further run for a new high. The temporary channel will naturally convert into a failed temporary triangle which only means that the stock will return back inside the main triangle seen clearly on the 'monthly' chart.
Having addressed the technical side, I'd like to add a few important words. I absolutely love the Crypto Currency revolution which has proven to us that the people are fed-up with the unfairness of the current monetary system owned by the central banks. While Crypto Currency will bring positive change in the future, there are many problems with Blockchain that you should know and research yourself. I will name just three:
– Transactions are not picked in order, but rather chosen by their size (for the fee), which flags this system for unfair practice.
– Long before the last mineable Bitcoin, miners won't make enough profit to be willing to remain in the game. This will slow the current system even further. Big miners know this and will leave the second BTC goes below a certain value (rumored to be 4k).
– If bitcoin were to replace the entire world's monetary system and financial markets, it would use more power than the entire world produces. Its completely unsustainable.
There are already solutions out there in other Crypto Currencies (4th Generation), in which they solve all of the above (and more). You just need to lose the emotion (for Bitcoin) and do some reasonable due diligence. To me personally, Crypto Currency is without a doubt the future, but Blockchain is NOT in it. While Bitcoin was the peer in this segment, it came "partially broken". But whoever invented it (Satoshi Nakamoto), has sparked a race to solving a bigger problem – Abolishing FIAT currency – and that definitely means something.
––
DarkMoon
(lines and connections have been averaged on step-line over linear for greater precision / zoom out to reveal more)
With the recent run, we now have four solid 'legs' to form a temporary channel that we can work with. Current max. downside is around 8.5k, while the upside is limited to around 10.9k (11.2k at the most). All you need to watch out for are 'weekly' candles (solids) forming below or above the 'weekly' formation upper trend line (zoom out to reveal the formation). Candles forming below the line will hint for a retreat to much lower levels by Spring of next year, and candles forming above will hint for a possible upward continuation (unlikely). We will know for sure by mid-to-end of December.
I normally use the usual MA suspects of 20/50/200, but in this case I've adjusted them to values more suitable for round-the-clock trading assets. It's important to note the interplay between these averages on the 'weekly' chart, especially between crossings. Many believe the so called "death cross" to be happening right now, while its actually displaced to spring of next year when using the right 'weekly' values. Interesting to watch will be the 3-2-1 cross play which always checks out unless the stock is new.
I'd like to add an additional important factor, which has been noticed only by some professional chartists out there, but ignored by most. And that is last week's lower lower. This, and consistent lower highs are a clear signal that there won't be any further uptrend past this formation, but rather the "consensual desire" of reaching new lows. Traders with years of experience know only too well how simple yet important this sign is. I feel silly even mentioning this. The 'weekly' PSAR series has been corrupted with the first drop, which already checks off any further run for a new high. The temporary channel will naturally convert into a failed temporary triangle which only means that the stock will return back inside the main triangle seen clearly on the 'monthly' chart.
Having addressed the technical side, I'd like to add a few important words. I absolutely love the Crypto Currency revolution which has proven to us that the people are fed-up with the unfairness of the current monetary system owned by the central banks. While Crypto Currency will bring positive change in the future, there are many problems with Blockchain that you should know and research yourself. I will name just three:
– Transactions are not picked in order, but rather chosen by their size (for the fee), which flags this system for unfair practice.
– Long before the last mineable Bitcoin, miners won't make enough profit to be willing to remain in the game. This will slow the current system even further. Big miners know this and will leave the second BTC goes below a certain value (rumored to be 4k).
– If bitcoin were to replace the entire world's monetary system and financial markets, it would use more power than the entire world produces. Its completely unsustainable.
There are already solutions out there in other Crypto Currencies (4th Generation), in which they solve all of the above (and more). You just need to lose the emotion (for Bitcoin) and do some reasonable due diligence. To me personally, Crypto Currency is without a doubt the future, but Blockchain is NOT in it. While Bitcoin was the peer in this segment, it came "partially broken". But whoever invented it (Satoshi Nakamoto), has sparked a race to solving a bigger problem – Abolishing FIAT currency – and that definitely means something.
––
DarkMoon
(lines and connections have been averaged on step-line over linear for greater precision / zoom out to reveal more)
Nota
youtu.be /evWBgNdWNDk (remove spacing)Nota
Correction: Upside can be as high as 11.7k (approx.)Nota
(upside is more likely to be approx. 10.9k)Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto
Due to the recent drop this chart is invalid. With that, BTC is confirming the 'monthly' triangle to be performed "clean" and very straight forward. I will post another update soon.
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.