2020 Cycle Top Proposal draft

21 giu 2021

1. Average of Days-To-Top from previous halvings = 588 days
2. Regression of growth between Days-To-Top from 2012 cycle to 2016 cycle = 755 days
3. Inferred window of Days To Top = roughly between December 20, 2021 and June 5, 2022
4. Inferred window of Price based on historical tops and bottoms range:

21 giu 2021

Nota

Sorry, my thoughts were cut short by my children yesterday #fathersday

4. ...lower bound suggests that by the time the Cycle Top occurs the lowest possible correction bottom is $20,000 (or higher the longer the cycle top takes). The upper bound suggests that the highest possible prices this cycle top can see is $530,000.
5. Linear regression channel indicator (with. fib lines) seems to indicate that the current weekly candle wedge will be broken upwards in late September and we will found ourselves hitting the cycle top just after the Average Days-To-Top date of December 20, 2021: between Jan. 3 to Jan. 10, 2022 (happy new years lol)

Commentary:
I have volumes of commentary on this simple chart and there are concerns that my drawings are so rudimentary it will fail to convey the full message. Regardless, allow me to expand.

thought 1 - head and shoulder thesis is wrong here. yes it is a typical and tried indicator but Bitcoin is not a typical nor tried asset. those who claim to understand it have barely begun to. don't believe the noise, ask yourself what does your heart say? I've had a growing sense for the last few weeks that this cycle top was going to occur later than what the intial pro-Bitcoin analysts expected (i.e. Sept-Nov.) That's why i created this chart, to discover if what my gut feelings were telling me was true. Now I suspect that it is.

thought 2 - we can safely watch Bitcoin plummet to $12,000 TODAY and still be within the normal performance parameters of Bitcoin history. It would be a first time event based on the timing of the cycle, but HODL strong if it does. You can verify the facts, Bitcoin is still math-based. Not FUD based, not even HODL based. It already is going to do what it is going to do, regardless of whether you buy, sell or HODL. That's what so beautiful about it.

thought 3 - i was surprised to find the linear regression channel (which was the last piece I added so as to give the chart some near term direction) was a solid dose of hopium. It seems to suggest that the near term price will ride the bottom of the wedge until it absolutely cannot stay down any longer (early August). From there is will begin its mother of all cycle tops trek to $400,000. Satoshi Nakamoto will likely be heralded as the richest person of all time next year, with the Winklvii close behind! Bitcoin has a history of shocking large groups of people effectively by surpassing all expectations and will probably do it again, although be warned, Bitcoin is not scared of underperforming our wildest price predictions either. The key again, is to listen to your heart. What does it *feel* like it's going to do. Your subconscious mind and body understand the mathematics of this asset far better than your conscience does.

thought 4 - the TL;DR of predictions is this:

Immediate term - will continue to scrape the wedge bottom at 30k-40k train until August

Short term - will bounce back and forth in the wedge from 50k-90k until late Dec. early Jan when the wedge finds itself imploding

Mid term - my lowest expected cycle top price is $300,000, my highest is $600,000. I will be shocked if it does less or more than those. from there it will correct down significantly. Remember previous corrections can be as low as 90% and that would take it right back to the 30k level again.

Long term - will form a new cycle wedge that follows magnetic pole of $100,000 - 200,000 for three more years. I haven't decided on what I believe will be this cycle's post-cycle top low yet.