Bitcoin Long Term Price Contraction
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TARGETS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED: this is a multi year trading idea using ideas and structures from other charts and lower time frames of Bitcoin. It is a general map, but obviously we can not expect to set exact price pivots this far in advance. I am in no way suggesting that you should be pre-setting orders based on this chart.
Regardless of what type of trading you practice, I believe that we can all agree that markets move in periods of contraction and expansion. The chart idea that I present to you today is based on the expectation that we will see high time frame price contraction continue for a couple more years. I will publish two versions of this chart at this time, but one should become a clear favorite in the course of 3-6 months.
Predictions:
$6,000 will be remembered for years to come
People will thing that BTC will forever be $6,000
$6,000 will be to BTC what $38 was to AMZN
Elliott Wave traders who don't follow the likes of Anil Mangal or FriendsCallMeAP may not be familiar with the Contracting Flat at this time. This formation has been seen multiple times on Bitcoin and has similarities to a triangle in that it contracts but does not break a trend. On a high time frame, we should continue to make higher lows throughout this correction and that is quite bullish in itself. Exhibit A is a high time frame contracting flat on AMZN that played out over the course of a decade. This chart is the primary reason that I am presenting two options to you today. What you are currently looking at is my primary expectation. This chart suggests that we could be done with the move down and starting a larger C wave.
You may see some traders with triangles on their charts. It is my experience that completed Elliott Wave triangles are quite rare and, when they are expected, they fail to have the 5 pivots of a triangle. Insert the contracting flat here. Most commonly, the C wave will be impulsive, but a WXY contracting flat alternative is valid as well.
I do not believe that Bitcoin is ready for a parabolic run up yet. It is my opinion that we are continuing to correct the move up to 20,000. Looking at oscillators such as MACD will give you an idea as to why I feel that way. At no point in history has BTC pushed to such extremes as what you see in these oscillators and they need more time to cool off before another period of expansion. Here is the weekly MACD plotted as a line and leaving off the other pieces that traditional MACD indicators add. The MACD line isolated serves very well as a momentum indicator. As you can see, it has become quite expanded and should contract a bit over time.
Elliott Wave traders: Impulse, correction. It is as simple as that. Corrections take time while impulses move quickly and typically cover more price territory. The internal waves of a correction will become more complex. More range bound. I am suggesting that we are entering, the innermost b subwave of B of (B) of ((B)). Trading this will likely get boring and choppy. Look to take advantage of funding when possible and hold longer term positions from swing levels.
I have previously posted a running flat variation of this chart. Many running flats were seen during the same period that AMZN created the contracting flat. This is a valid alternative, but it is my secondary pattern behind this one with the main thought being trader sentiment calling for new highs, trapped holders from 15-20k, and the oscillators. Here is a running flat example though.
Note that the chart here is displayed in the standard, linear chart. When flipping to log, moon side targets become quite amazing. Here are both BTC and AMZN charts in log.
VPVR plays a major role in my trading with point of control and high volume areas. There are pretty significant differences in the primary point of control on Bitmex that I trade on and Bitstamp that I charted this on. Bitmex is my go to for this purpose. You can see how it fits in here:
Regardless of what type of trading you practice, I believe that we can all agree that markets move in periods of contraction and expansion. The chart idea that I present to you today is based on the expectation that we will see high time frame price contraction continue for a couple more years. I will publish two versions of this chart at this time, but one should become a clear favorite in the course of 3-6 months.
Predictions:
$6,000 will be remembered for years to come
People will thing that BTC will forever be $6,000
$6,000 will be to BTC what $38 was to AMZN
Elliott Wave traders who don't follow the likes of Anil Mangal or FriendsCallMeAP may not be familiar with the Contracting Flat at this time. This formation has been seen multiple times on Bitcoin and has similarities to a triangle in that it contracts but does not break a trend. On a high time frame, we should continue to make higher lows throughout this correction and that is quite bullish in itself. Exhibit A is a high time frame contracting flat on AMZN that played out over the course of a decade. This chart is the primary reason that I am presenting two options to you today. What you are currently looking at is my primary expectation. This chart suggests that we could be done with the move down and starting a larger C wave.
You may see some traders with triangles on their charts. It is my experience that completed Elliott Wave triangles are quite rare and, when they are expected, they fail to have the 5 pivots of a triangle. Insert the contracting flat here. Most commonly, the C wave will be impulsive, but a WXY contracting flat alternative is valid as well.
I do not believe that Bitcoin is ready for a parabolic run up yet. It is my opinion that we are continuing to correct the move up to 20,000. Looking at oscillators such as MACD will give you an idea as to why I feel that way. At no point in history has BTC pushed to such extremes as what you see in these oscillators and they need more time to cool off before another period of expansion. Here is the weekly MACD plotted as a line and leaving off the other pieces that traditional MACD indicators add. The MACD line isolated serves very well as a momentum indicator. As you can see, it has become quite expanded and should contract a bit over time.
Elliott Wave traders: Impulse, correction. It is as simple as that. Corrections take time while impulses move quickly and typically cover more price territory. The internal waves of a correction will become more complex. More range bound. I am suggesting that we are entering, the innermost b subwave of B of (B) of ((B)). Trading this will likely get boring and choppy. Look to take advantage of funding when possible and hold longer term positions from swing levels.
I have previously posted a running flat variation of this chart. Many running flats were seen during the same period that AMZN created the contracting flat. This is a valid alternative, but it is my secondary pattern behind this one with the main thought being trader sentiment calling for new highs, trapped holders from 15-20k, and the oscillators. Here is a running flat example though.
Note that the chart here is displayed in the standard, linear chart. When flipping to log, moon side targets become quite amazing. Here are both BTC and AMZN charts in log.
VPVR plays a major role in my trading with point of control and high volume areas. There are pretty significant differences in the primary point of control on Bitmex that I trade on and Bitstamp that I charted this on. Bitmex is my go to for this purpose. You can see how it fits in here:
Commento
I believe our low may be in for now. I had expected another low to be made, but it appears unlikely at this time. Something of the nature of these:
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