Post Halving: BTC Loves Sep and OCT

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BTC is currently sitting just below 61K and is not ready for the next leg up. We have been stuck in consolidation since the recent ~73K high back in March 2024 and the logarithmic weekly charts shows that BTC has been trending in this rising channel since November 2022. Judging from the previous trends seen in the past two halving events (see below) we are likely to see a massive liquidity sell off prior to the next explosive move to new all-time highs.

We can very much continue consolidating within the current ~60k – 70k range but I think we need this sell off to happen in order to go higher. Big players like banks and institutions place massive orders and trade massive positions that drive price higher. Nothing fundamentally has changed and BTC is likely to see a new all-time high, but in order for that to happen, the big players require liquidity. I think we are due for one more sell off prior to new highs and the charts point towards a likely liquidity grab at around ~52K.

At that level I expect confluence from the 50 EMA to catch up to price and for 52k support to be retested along with trend line confluence from the rising channel.

This will place us roughly around Sep/Oct and BTC loves Sep and Oct.

Best of Luck!

Nota

Zooming into the daily chart at around the previous halving event, BTC was trending in a rising channel since May 2020. Price ranged from July to early September and had a massive ~17% sell off prior to the next leg up.

Current price with a 17% sell off would roughly take us to 52K

Nota

Zooming into the daily chart at around the 2016 halving event, BTC also had a massive ~27% sell off in late July / early August before kicking of the next leg up to new all-time highs

Current price with a 17% sell off would roughly take us to 44K

Nota

lots of blood in the water, this is planning out as expected so far but lets see how we close the week

Nota

weve just broken past this local low in the range and as it stands 52k is looking very conservative.

Nota

1st downside target has been hit, macro looks awful so lets wee if we can hold this area

Nota

geopolitical environment may grant us another buying opportunity. im hoping we get it 🔥

Nota

key area here

Nota

good break here

BTC has once again approached a key level for breakout

Nota

things are getting real exciting now

Nota

alr so lots of volatility and sentiment change going around the crypto space. it's very easy for some traders to go off an absolute line of resistance and call a dump to zero like so

but i don't go off absolute lines and have built my style off trading multiple touch points

i think we are holding off fairly well and many questions will be answered post US election

we have retested this zone perfectly and once we break that line of resistance i think a retest of the ATH is undeniable.

patience pays.

Nota

that's VALIDATING !

next up ATH

Nota

beautiful and extremely validating!

this flag we called has now played out

i expect a small retracement from BTC before we blast off. again, some traders on here will call the top and predict well go to zero but the market cycles just don't show that.

Nota

i expect us to hold here and create a higher high

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holding up here for now

i expect the upwards trend to continue and still remain short term bullish. if we can't hold here with all the volatility this week id expect us to retest that trendline

Nota

beautiful weve been calling it here! New ATH and BTC is looking good ! i expect us to test that ath level and bounce up

i think at this point the sentiment is finally shifting; this is not a bull trap and we are not going to zero , BTC will continue making new ATHs and FOMO will hit the markets real fast

Nota

the ATHs keep coming 79K !🔥🔥

Nota

93k !? That momentum is insane. I think a lot believed we would come down and retest 78k, i def thought we were losing steam but BTCs strength is unparallel.

lets see how much more fire this momentum has, 100k can come alot sooner than expected 👀

Nota

just shy off triple digits. considered taking profits at 99k and rolling into altcoins but was too slow to generate the plan and decide ugghh. BTC is correcting but i think we will break 100k by end of year

Key area here, RSI needs to curl to continue bullish, if we break this level, we can fall a lot further

we can fall as much to 76,770 and still be in this uptrend

Nota

i think we can break 100k next week, we are hanging on here at ~97K very well

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100kk day !

Nota

looks like a false breakout. BTC is correcting and might see 90k again

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WOW, that got me, the king is too strong, i think we'll see a 120K BTC real soon ! Lets see what news Wednesday hold with the rate cuts

Nota

what a brutal drop. was not expecting the market to react like this on rate cuts. We have retested the POC and are just hanging on 100k. This is surprising but i don't think the top has been set. I think BTC still has a lot going for it going in 2025. We main see more downside but i think December can still close out green for the equities and crypto markets

what does concern me is the dollar strength

and 10 year note have exploded

this overall tells me that investors are not as risk on as us crypto investors would like them to be. we will have to monitor these fo the rest of december

Nota

Despite the recent negative sentiment, BTC has managed to hold above 90K. We have established support right around 91K and have bounced off the 50 EMA on the daily. A break from 99K will send us back to 106K

The Dollar remains strong

and so does the 10-year note

We aren't in the clear yet and should still trade with caution, but I remain bullish on BTC for 2025 and think we can continue seeing new ATH's

Nota

BTC was not able to hold, expect us to retest and hold ~91K, itis currently following the equity markets very closely and both the dollar and 10-year note remain really strong

4 giorni fa

Nota

BTC holding above 90K lots of fear going around, i remain bullish that we can hold 90K

10 year note remains strong and has gap filled now

ieri

Nota

that's a breakout in my books!

10 year note falling after the gap fill

LaMASIA_100

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