Incoming Pain
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We have to dump before we can pump. Can't get to max pain in the 30's, and between TA, the fud in the news, and the fear surrounding the greyscale unlocking on the 18th could give us a nice dump in the coming days. Even without it, we've broken down out of a wedge (that was inside of a triangle), and there's an argument that can be made for a puny h&s, so down is gonna happen more likley than up right now.
This most likley will be a slow bleed to the low 30k's over the next few days, then on the 18th when the unlocking happens, that could be a catalyst for a dump to around 27k, potentially as low as 25.6k. This will not be quite enough to hit max pain, which is probably going to be reallllllly close to the previous cycle ATH around 19.4k.
We will likley bounce to 33-35k again (probably on the lower side), so we can repeat this cycle of hope and despair that sideways causes, but there will probably not be any more bouncing around after that. The next time we go down will be max pain, and the market will finally break out up or down, ruining us or making us all life changing money.
Try not to get shook out yet, the best is (probably) yet to come
This most likley will be a slow bleed to the low 30k's over the next few days, then on the 18th when the unlocking happens, that could be a catalyst for a dump to around 27k, potentially as low as 25.6k. This will not be quite enough to hit max pain, which is probably going to be reallllllly close to the previous cycle ATH around 19.4k.
We will likley bounce to 33-35k again (probably on the lower side), so we can repeat this cycle of hope and despair that sideways causes, but there will probably not be any more bouncing around after that. The next time we go down will be max pain, and the market will finally break out up or down, ruining us or making us all life changing money.
Try not to get shook out yet, the best is (probably) yet to come
Nota
Another thing was just brought to my attention, and I think it might be important, and it adjusts my target a little bit. GBTC unlock on the 18th, shortly after, options expire on the 30th. It's obviously not a for sure thing, but if anything on the near horizon could set us up to go into max pain/fear, it's those two things that close to each other. My higher probability range for my bear target has extended into early august now.
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