Here's another thought...
There are two possible scenarios based on the historical trend. The green depicts the bull run up TO 20K over-imposed to fit current cycle. The red is the bear run FROM 20K. It's over-imposed and assumes that the recent 14K run was only just one more wave of the bear cycle.
This is just a thought. Not an advice to trade. Just wanted to share what I have seen.
Good luck out there.