BTCUSD: The Road To 7K Begins Here?

7 nov 2018

Bitcoin update: The break out to 7K is now in progress. We issued a swing trade idea to go long which triggered around 75 points ago. Now it is a matter of waiting for our target (lower than 7K). As long as the newly established minor bullish trend line stays intact, it is within reason to see the low 7Ks relatively soon.

Compared to other "experts" who were more active during the hard money, we only sustained two stop outs since August. We preserved our buying power which now puts us in a position to effectively capitalize on the opportunities ahead while many are trying to recover from a deficit. If you can't keep what you make, then this is nothing more than an expensive hobby.

So what's ahead? If this recovery continues, there will be plenty of entry opportunities. We are leaving our short term target in place in order to lock in profit and reduce risk which is in line with our best practices.

At the same time, we have been accumulating inventory in some of the more promising alts that can benefit from a broad recovery in Bitcoin. We have been writing about and accumulating longer term positions in coins like BAT and XMR for weeks.

If you missed all this, there is nothing to do but WAIT for the next setup. Buying highs is never a good idea even though this market has plenty of room to push higher. As price continues to go vertical, the risk of retrace increases dramatically while the relative reward becomes less attractive.

The best thing you can do is formulate a plan in advance. We did not react to the market when we issued our Bitcoin long, we followed a particular plan. Just like we did for the two trades previously that were stopped out. Our plan also kept us out of a lot of noise and unnecessary losses.

The plan does not have to be complicated, but it really should be your own. Following others is good to get ideas from, but ultimately your reasoning has to come from your own experience.

Our plan is to ride this long to its target and then wait for the next retrace. It could be the mid 6400s, but that can change as price makes a new high.

In summary, in a recent article I mentioned that we always consider sentiment from the contrarian point of view. Our recent evaluation (observing top Tradingview articles) shed some light on this coming break out. How? The majority of "experts" were bearish. Classic herd mentality.

Successful market timing is about evaluating, adjusting, measuring and maintaining a sense of probabilities. It's the same for EVERY market, not just Bitcoin.

Knowing your environment, how to play a good defense and how to manage risk across time frames has very little to do with the RSI or drawing lines on a chart. Market timing is more about getting into the "listener" mindset and recognizing what a quality opportunity looks like, not just on a chart, but also in terms of risk and probability.

You will benefit more from getting more in tune with your decision making process and fine tuning it than you will from following an anonymous chart guru making outrageous claims. Learn to listen to price.