BITCOIN - My Outlook Is Changing 🤔💭
Ok Guys,
We are arriving to a pivotal moment here for BTC (I think) and its a moment to consider what is happening with stock indexes in relation to BTC to see what is most probable to happen next.
Firstly, although I like to make bold calls, it is important to stay flexible. The market is constantly giving more data and its important to leave the fairytale to one side when necessary and pay attention to what the market is telling us.
And for those of you that agreed with my calls and and also bought the BTC/ALT lows - its been a nice little run, but this is the time when many will become too attached to dreams of gainz and its important to stay nimble to remain ahead.
SHIB pumped 35% yesterday and the herd really will be rushing in now and as they enter I am now exiting SHIB and exiting everything, except for JASMY as it remains at the fib I called back in July. But if the collapse begins I will exit that too.
For any newcomers I bought UNI APE SHIB MATIC KDA DOGE XPR GAFI JASMY all at their exact lows as well as RIOT and MARA a little higher and a few more along the way. Except for JASMY they have all pumped. They are all on record. I'm not like many publishers that talk in hindsight and you are expected to believe. Go check them - they are all there.
And for my bearish resume I called the end of the bull run when BTC was up at 60K and always said it would get back to 20K from March 2021. That is on record too. See links below "See you at 20K."
Anyhow enough pre-amble but if I dont say these things then many that view my pages will not realise what I'm doing here and it may be a good moment to remind you all before the next chapter - which may be in a few days or a week or two, but its coming and its important to be ready.
...
Ok, so to explain further I need to go into my previous thoughts about this being a significant bounce low.
- BTC low was a key Fibonacci area (as shown on the chart).
- Metrics such as NVT showed this low was one of the lowest ever.
This chart is the Wookalich Ratio that is an NVT variant. If you look at the circled area; the yellow shows divergence that has moved further than any time before including the 2019 bottom. It did also trigger in the C0vid low but this imo is a reactionary fall and so I do not count it as a natural low.
And there are other things to look at but just the fibs and NVT made a strong case for a solid bounce in this area.
...
Now, in stock indexes I have considered for a while that they are all potentially in a major bear market and so there has always been a good chance that SPX NDX and DJI would all see another leg down following a bounce to form a zig zag correction.
Putting all of this together my thought was that BTC would move with indexes up to 40-50K area.
And thats not off the table, it is still a possibility and i'll come back to that.
Ultimately what I was looking for ideally was for BTC to have a hard bounce while indexes lagged. If not that, then I was looking for BTC to at least keep up with stock indexes such as the Nasdaq, after all it is the more volatile asset.
But instead stock indexes have been booming while BTC has floundered. And it is this recent surge in stock indexes that has moved passed significant fibs and so now my perspective is changing.
Lets take a look at the S&P500.
Ok so already SPX is nearly at at the blue band. This is a very common extremity zone for reversal and as you can see SPX is already within touching distance.
Another consideration is the speed that this trend is moving...
And ok I need to explain a bit more so you understand the relevance of this.
- I did previously expect SPX to pump a bit and then correct down to build a slower structure and perhaps be up at this level in a month or two.
But that hasn't happened and it is ramping up and starting to look more like a blow off top is coming. And that means that another major collapse is in the pipeline!
Now, it could be that this wave from the low will form a new mid term trend to make new highs and go up and up, but if you look at the difference between the previous ascent that was already very volatile and this one, the difference is wild. This ascent is MUCH faster and that doesn't fit so well with the idea that this is a new uptrend. Its not impossible, but if it did happen it would be an unheard of before lightening fast trend. Perhaps les likely...
Another permutation is that it can form some kind of double top - perhaps somewhat less likely than reversing in the blue band but its on the table.
Now, textbooks will tell you that retracements are always less impulsive than motive waves but in my own study I have found that it is all about context and in crash structures the opposite is actually true. Wild short squeezes are common before the next crushing collapse and this looks to quite likely what will happen here.
Also the 50 week MA is arriving in the blue band and good chance that will provide resistance.
So the point I'm getting at is there is a good chance that stock indexes will be entirely cooked soon. And that would be bad news for BTC and crypto.
If you look to the chart for this thread what structure do you see 🤔?
Its a bearish wedge.
Price is very tightly bound and with consideration of what I wrote previously of stock indexes this can be very dangerous.
Because what do tight price bands lead to (Wyckoff) 🤔?
1 gold star for anyone that knew the answer ⭐.
Tight price bands lead to impulsive moves!
And impulsively down 😄 not up.
...
But there are always permutations and there is another more crypto friendly outcome - which is what I have previously been thinking will happen -
"Pattern separation."
The ascending channel (bearish) breaks into a descending channel (bullish).
But something doesn't feel right about this idea now. The ascending channel has just gone on for too long.
I would now say its more likely that the long ascending channel is building pressure (cause) to implode downward in tandem with stock indexes.
If it was pattern separation I think the ascending channel would have ended by now.
But that said I remain open to both possibilities. BTC is an exotic chart after all.
And there is no need to be rigidly attached to either, we can simple wait and see.
If BTC falls through the ascending channel slowly and correctively with plenty of chop, then the crypto friendly pattern separation idea might be correct.
But if BTC has a fast collapse then get ready because BTC is going to collapse in a BIG way.
And I forgot to write that BTC could have a blow off top first, as I suggested in a previous thread - that is also still on the table as BTC really can do anything in the very short term.
Either way, I made some alt gains and I am exiting now - I hold no longs anymore, I only hold equity shorts. The risk of holding is too great now as even if BTC does have a flush pump and even if alts do too, lower prices are coming again, and it could be MUCH lower.
...
Ok guys, its been a long thread and here are some closing thoughts.
Right now the hodl herd are rushing in and most charting traders that do actually have an interest to buy cryptos now also think this is consolidation to move much higher, also after witnessing big alt pumps such as SHIB. And there are of course are plenty bearish publishers on TV still but they never buy they just want lower and lower targets forever.
My point is that what I am providing to you (so far at least) is a cut above what you can get elsewhere I would suggest. Of course there will be some quality content out there, but effectively I am giving this away for free amid a sea of dross.
In addition - I won't go into too much detail here but my work is at a level that people can effectively steal it to use in a professional context to make their own group or to use in a firm or whatever.
And I have been considering to make a group for sometime, but I wanted to first be operating at a level of proficiency to be able to deliver satisfaction and have it be a pleasant environment. That said no-one is perfect and I will always be on the learning path myself.
But anyhow we're not there yet and i'll still keep giving everything away for free for now and maybe a little while yet.
And in the meantime you can watch the next chapter unfold and see how accurate I am on this occasion.
...
If you would like to join my future group I am thinking I will show you my ongoing work with 2 videos a week where I can go into much more detail than is possible by text, and perhaps i'll make some shared live interactive content where I can look at your chart requests etc and even look at your own charts if that is popular.
If you are interested in this then send me a PM and we'll have a brief chat.
Also as you can probably imagine it takes a little while to write all this it will be much easier to make videos for more in depth analysis.
Not advice.
We are arriving to a pivotal moment here for BTC (I think) and its a moment to consider what is happening with stock indexes in relation to BTC to see what is most probable to happen next.
Firstly, although I like to make bold calls, it is important to stay flexible. The market is constantly giving more data and its important to leave the fairytale to one side when necessary and pay attention to what the market is telling us.
And for those of you that agreed with my calls and and also bought the BTC/ALT lows - its been a nice little run, but this is the time when many will become too attached to dreams of gainz and its important to stay nimble to remain ahead.
SHIB pumped 35% yesterday and the herd really will be rushing in now and as they enter I am now exiting SHIB and exiting everything, except for JASMY as it remains at the fib I called back in July. But if the collapse begins I will exit that too.
For any newcomers I bought UNI APE SHIB MATIC KDA DOGE XPR GAFI JASMY all at their exact lows as well as RIOT and MARA a little higher and a few more along the way. Except for JASMY they have all pumped. They are all on record. I'm not like many publishers that talk in hindsight and you are expected to believe. Go check them - they are all there.
And for my bearish resume I called the end of the bull run when BTC was up at 60K and always said it would get back to 20K from March 2021. That is on record too. See links below "See you at 20K."
Anyhow enough pre-amble but if I dont say these things then many that view my pages will not realise what I'm doing here and it may be a good moment to remind you all before the next chapter - which may be in a few days or a week or two, but its coming and its important to be ready.
...
Ok, so to explain further I need to go into my previous thoughts about this being a significant bounce low.
- BTC low was a key Fibonacci area (as shown on the chart).
- Metrics such as NVT showed this low was one of the lowest ever.
This chart is the Wookalich Ratio that is an NVT variant. If you look at the circled area; the yellow shows divergence that has moved further than any time before including the 2019 bottom. It did also trigger in the C0vid low but this imo is a reactionary fall and so I do not count it as a natural low.
And there are other things to look at but just the fibs and NVT made a strong case for a solid bounce in this area.
...
Now, in stock indexes I have considered for a while that they are all potentially in a major bear market and so there has always been a good chance that SPX NDX and DJI would all see another leg down following a bounce to form a zig zag correction.
Putting all of this together my thought was that BTC would move with indexes up to 40-50K area.
And thats not off the table, it is still a possibility and i'll come back to that.
Ultimately what I was looking for ideally was for BTC to have a hard bounce while indexes lagged. If not that, then I was looking for BTC to at least keep up with stock indexes such as the Nasdaq, after all it is the more volatile asset.
But instead stock indexes have been booming while BTC has floundered. And it is this recent surge in stock indexes that has moved passed significant fibs and so now my perspective is changing.
Lets take a look at the S&P500.
Ok so already SPX is nearly at at the blue band. This is a very common extremity zone for reversal and as you can see SPX is already within touching distance.
Another consideration is the speed that this trend is moving...
And ok I need to explain a bit more so you understand the relevance of this.
- I did previously expect SPX to pump a bit and then correct down to build a slower structure and perhaps be up at this level in a month or two.
But that hasn't happened and it is ramping up and starting to look more like a blow off top is coming. And that means that another major collapse is in the pipeline!
Now, it could be that this wave from the low will form a new mid term trend to make new highs and go up and up, but if you look at the difference between the previous ascent that was already very volatile and this one, the difference is wild. This ascent is MUCH faster and that doesn't fit so well with the idea that this is a new uptrend. Its not impossible, but if it did happen it would be an unheard of before lightening fast trend. Perhaps les likely...
Another permutation is that it can form some kind of double top - perhaps somewhat less likely than reversing in the blue band but its on the table.
Now, textbooks will tell you that retracements are always less impulsive than motive waves but in my own study I have found that it is all about context and in crash structures the opposite is actually true. Wild short squeezes are common before the next crushing collapse and this looks to quite likely what will happen here.
Also the 50 week MA is arriving in the blue band and good chance that will provide resistance.
So the point I'm getting at is there is a good chance that stock indexes will be entirely cooked soon. And that would be bad news for BTC and crypto.
If you look to the chart for this thread what structure do you see 🤔?
Its a bearish wedge.
Price is very tightly bound and with consideration of what I wrote previously of stock indexes this can be very dangerous.
Because what do tight price bands lead to (Wyckoff) 🤔?
1 gold star for anyone that knew the answer ⭐.
Tight price bands lead to impulsive moves!
And impulsively down 😄 not up.
...
But there are always permutations and there is another more crypto friendly outcome - which is what I have previously been thinking will happen -
"Pattern separation."
The ascending channel (bearish) breaks into a descending channel (bullish).
But something doesn't feel right about this idea now. The ascending channel has just gone on for too long.
I would now say its more likely that the long ascending channel is building pressure (cause) to implode downward in tandem with stock indexes.
If it was pattern separation I think the ascending channel would have ended by now.
But that said I remain open to both possibilities. BTC is an exotic chart after all.
And there is no need to be rigidly attached to either, we can simple wait and see.
If BTC falls through the ascending channel slowly and correctively with plenty of chop, then the crypto friendly pattern separation idea might be correct.
But if BTC has a fast collapse then get ready because BTC is going to collapse in a BIG way.
And I forgot to write that BTC could have a blow off top first, as I suggested in a previous thread - that is also still on the table as BTC really can do anything in the very short term.
Either way, I made some alt gains and I am exiting now - I hold no longs anymore, I only hold equity shorts. The risk of holding is too great now as even if BTC does have a flush pump and even if alts do too, lower prices are coming again, and it could be MUCH lower.
...
Ok guys, its been a long thread and here are some closing thoughts.
Right now the hodl herd are rushing in and most charting traders that do actually have an interest to buy cryptos now also think this is consolidation to move much higher, also after witnessing big alt pumps such as SHIB. And there are of course are plenty bearish publishers on TV still but they never buy they just want lower and lower targets forever.
My point is that what I am providing to you (so far at least) is a cut above what you can get elsewhere I would suggest. Of course there will be some quality content out there, but effectively I am giving this away for free amid a sea of dross.
In addition - I won't go into too much detail here but my work is at a level that people can effectively steal it to use in a professional context to make their own group or to use in a firm or whatever.
And I have been considering to make a group for sometime, but I wanted to first be operating at a level of proficiency to be able to deliver satisfaction and have it be a pleasant environment. That said no-one is perfect and I will always be on the learning path myself.
But anyhow we're not there yet and i'll still keep giving everything away for free for now and maybe a little while yet.
And in the meantime you can watch the next chapter unfold and see how accurate I am on this occasion.
...
If you would like to join my future group I am thinking I will show you my ongoing work with 2 videos a week where I can go into much more detail than is possible by text, and perhaps i'll make some shared live interactive content where I can look at your chart requests etc and even look at your own charts if that is popular.
If you are interested in this then send me a PM and we'll have a brief chat.
Also as you can probably imagine it takes a little while to write all this it will be much easier to make videos for more in depth analysis.
Not advice.
Nota
If you like what I'm doing here do hit the LIKE or COMMENT and more TV'ers will see my work 👍🏻.Nota
For the record I have re-entered SHIB because it looks a reasonable chance to do maybe another 40-50% pump from here and that would really get the free lunch community rushing in.Also JASMY having a little pump today, maybe it can have a real breakout. Threads updated.
Nota
Actually having looked again I think SHIB may be about to pump 100%. Yes you read that correctly. The little dog loves the log 2.272 - it hit it twice last run.Nota
S&P 500 futures has yesterday printed an upper wicked candle through the low of the blue band (which is log 0.618 retracement) and already down 0.8% pre-market.If the week ends here or lower it will print a weekly star and that will very likely be the top and will also very likely be the top for BTC too.
Nota
SHIB still looks like it will pump though. JASMY not so much.Nota
BTC has fallen out of the original (yellow) ascending channel. Lets see if it forms an SRP yet again to hop back in. If indexes fall right here then BTC will too, but good chance it forms a distributive topping pattern first.
So my guess is it will get back in to drift a bit before falling with indexes, but its just a guess, it may just fall. But it now seems probable that the top is in.
Nota
Pattern Separation here with a descending with a retracement short squeeze pump collapsing out of the ascending channel and that has lead to this very weak looking ascending channel.Ascending channel within an ascending channel is bearish and indexes appear to be cliff walking potentially, so good chance a dump is coming.
I'm entirely out of crypto now. Its looking bearish.
Nota
This is the end my only friend 😸.And a leading indicator to stock indexes 🤔?
We will see. I think so...
Nota
So this idea obviously worked out very well as did my staggered exit from crypto. Also somewhat irrelevant to this thread but my equity shorts are also going very well since this is a multi market shift in momentum. I cant short crypto as i'm in the UK but I wouldn't short here, I prefer to short overbought stocks, much better RR. And the shorts i've taken some a little early but they're all on my ideas page and going well now. I'll show you how I'm doing it in the group when I get around to learning how to record if it is of interest.
What I'm doing is essentially crop rotation and the crypto harvest is over - at least for now. Follow the gravy train 🚅.
Nota
Well BTC has dipped below 21K and quite shocked but marcolopes prediction that this would only happen if either there was war in taiwan or a nuclear fallout has not happened as yet. I would imagine it has been getting very tense at the taiwanese military bases, they probably have the BTC chart up on a big screen ready for the sirens to go off and war to break out 😅.Nota
marcolopes now "waiting for THE dip." What a surprise... 😄.
I'm taking it easy on TradingView👋🏻.
But I run a group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
But I run a group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
I'm taking it easy on TradingView👋🏻.
But I run a group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
But I run a group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
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