Bitcoin on sweet spot

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Hi guys... I have been following BTC for some years now, and i have learned a lot along the process. I have made correct and wrong predictions. Its part of the learning curve...

Anyway, I would like to publish my idea on BTC. The way I see it is that we will have soon a halving that might have a significative impact on BTC. You can check on the chart the vertical line representing the expected halving date. Looking at the past of BTC we can see we have a small channel on the bottom, and a larger channel.

The down trend has years of existance and inumerous testings... I am assuming that at least this time, BTC will not breake it and we will continue in uptrend. If that line breaks, BTC does not look good.

However, I believe that the line won't break soon. Looking at other halving events, we notice a price surge before an event, followed by a price drop (meaning miners are holding before halving and dumping after). The price then follows the small channel untill it breaks.
Nota
I believe that BTC will go down to 9000 or a bit lower before jumping to break the big triangle. After that, and before halving, BTC may break the 12000 and go up to 13000 or 14000.
After halving it will re-test bottom trend line, follow in the small channel for some time and if it manages to break 20000 (in 1 year?)... well... you know what happens then...

Please comment. I would love to know your ideas.
Trend Analysis

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