For all the "Bitcoin will follow gold" crowd...
This chart tells a very different story.
Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward.
📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when:
We're in another one of those zones right now.
Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear:
BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months.
If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically.
🧭 Trade Idea:
This chart tells a very different story.
Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward.
📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when:
- GLD/SPX (gold line) made strong relative moves,
- BTC/SPX (aqua line) lagged or outright dropped.
We're in another one of those zones right now.
Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear:
BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months.
If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically.
🧭 Trade Idea:
- Patience: Don't rush the BTC long. Let the GLD/SPX spike play out.
- Timeframe: Revisit BTC/SPX for potential re-entry mid-to-late 2025.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.