following swings from past 4 years, id be skeptical of any rally to meet ATH in next six months. momentum from past 2 years smoothed over 6 months shows strong overbought conditions. so even if momentum from past year started to meet median, that looks like it would happen in 2022, from there the downward swing momentum and longer than expected winter will create skepticism until people see oversold conditions followed by a break out in 2023. i like how the Wyckoff method made an academic standard for separating smart money from dumb money but its initial application was to the stock market. I believe that cryptocurrencies are on path to deserving their own theories of price cycles.
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