What if we aren't where we think we are?

25 mag 2019

This is a possible bearish outlook. While I'm long term bullish, I've been looking for possibilities where the bear market is not over yet. I think it's a good exercise to do, as specially at the point in the market where we could be either seeing the start of a massive bull market or the continuation of a massive bear market. We are at a potential pivot point, and before I decide I'm macro bullish again, I want to account for as many possibilities as possible so I'm not caught with my pants down. I am fully aware of all the possible bullish outlooks, most of which are focusing on the moving averages. Comparing to 2014-2015 bear market, most believe we are at the same point now as we were then when it finally ended. I tend to agree with that outlook, but what if we are not where we think we are? I pulled up the 3 day chart and removed most of the moving averages and just focused on the price action, macd, and stochs. On the left chart, I have 2014-2015 and on the right I have our current price action. I think we are all very aware a pullback is in the cards in the very near future. When comparing to 2014-2015, I noticed that we might still be very early in the bear market and have a long way to go. I'm not ruling this comparative observation out, but at the same time, I'm not sure how much merit it has. But keeping it as a possible outcome, if it goes down to say the 2k range, I will be ready, and I'll have a 2014-2015 template to compare to that nobody else is looking at. In the off chance I'm right here, it's always nice to look left and have a good chance of knowing what's coming to the right. This observation will hold true until the price action completely changes and invalidates it. Until then, this could be a good weapon to have on your side to stay ahead of the game.

I think it's obvious when comparing the 2 charts the similarities in price action as well as the macd and stochs. The upcoming pullback, whenever it finally gets here will determine the fate of this observation. If we only get a small pullback and continue on upwards, I think we can safely say we are at the end of our bear market. If we go down into the depths of the crypto wastelands, we could be in for a longer bear market, and in that case, we will at least have something to compare to from 2014-2015.