BITCOIN to DROP to ~ $12500 in ~ 1-2 YEAR. Network Adoption...
I know everyone will say this is an outlandish call but I am making it anyway. I FULLY Expected 
BTC to bounce at the most recent TL support around $38,400-40k just as everyone else did. But the signs were there and I wish I saw them earlier that BTC has Topped for 2022 and will likely not see a bottom until 12-18 months from now. I expect the low to be around $12500 for this Target Price.
WHY?? Glad you asked. WhenBTC broke from its major TL support, Horizontal support and below the Weekly EMA 39 I had to reevaluate my Bullishness on BTC. Now I am LONGTERM Bullish BTC but have become intermediate term Bearish.
BTC has been following closely the Metcalf's law of Network Adoption that is available everywhere online. I am a firm believer thatBTC and crypto in general is the "Internet of Finance and Banking". So why are we comparing BTC to BTC prior 4 year cycles??. Why is everyone comparing BTC to Stock to Flow model and halving events??
Shouldn't we be comparing it to well established Internet stocks that followed Metcalf's Law like,....AMZN??
Yes you say....well lets look closely at AMZN when it was first trading with a market cap of ~ $6 Billion around the Dot Com Bubble. Everyone was into tech. There were thousands of "dot com" companies some of which survived but most that did not. Sounds a lot like Crypto. We have mainstream media talking about crypto but they are not really sure how it fits in to the real world. Some accept it and others think its ridiculous. The same in the dot com era.
Look at the following charts of BTC and AMZN. Notice any similarities?? BOTH had a long basing structure with a small pop in price toward end of the summer prior to any POP in price. BTC Price pop was probably somewhat effected by the Pandemic. Notice there are basically 3 UPTHRUSTS. They look slightly different but they also look alot alike. See charts for the details on the similarities. The peaks of the 1st UPTHRUST were obviously different in AMZN compared to BTC but otherwise the timing and chart pattern is almost identical. Even the slope of the TL (Yellow Lines) and timing of all the Peaks is eerily similar. What was going on at that time with the Fed?? You guessed it RATE HIKES!! Three to be exact!
But the overall Nasdaq continued to tread higher topping out between March-April 2000 while AMZN started to top out January 2000. People said it had no merit and expected it to die many times. After all AMZN didn't make any money (sound Familiar Peter Schiff?...). AMZN Topped and fell for about 20 months before reaching its "Basing Structure" overhead resistance around $5. That base became the floor.
If we assume that BTC is trading 24/7 unlike AMZN we can reasonably assume the bottom will happen slightly quicker like maybe 14-18 months. The "Basing Structure" prior to BTC POP in price in 2020 had overhead resistance around $12500. AMZN Floated around $5-$14 for most all of 2001 in another "Basing Structure" of sideways chop.
Will history CONTINUE to Repeat??? Tell me what you think and comment below.
Trade what you see...
AMAZON Chart for Comparison
BTC to bounce at the most recent TL support around $38,400-40k just as everyone else did. But the signs were there and I wish I saw them earlier that BTC has Topped for 2022 and will likely not see a bottom until 12-18 months from now. I expect the low to be around $12500 for this Target Price.WHY?? Glad you asked. When
BTC broke from its major TL support, Horizontal support and below the Weekly EMA 39 I had to reevaluate my Bullishness on BTC. Now I am LONGTERM Bullish BTC but have become intermediate term Bearish.BTC has been following closely the Metcalf's law of Network Adoption that is available everywhere online. I am a firm believer that
BTC and crypto in general is the "Internet of Finance and Banking". So why are we comparing BTC to BTC prior 4 year cycles??. Why is everyone comparing BTC to Stock to Flow model and halving events?? Shouldn't we be comparing it to well established Internet stocks that followed Metcalf's Law like,....AMZN??
Yes you say....well lets look closely at AMZN when it was first trading with a market cap of ~ $6 Billion around the Dot Com Bubble. Everyone was into tech. There were thousands of "dot com" companies some of which survived but most that did not. Sounds a lot like Crypto. We have mainstream media talking about crypto but they are not really sure how it fits in to the real world. Some accept it and others think its ridiculous. The same in the dot com era.
Look at the following charts of BTC and AMZN. Notice any similarities?? BOTH had a long basing structure with a small pop in price toward end of the summer prior to any POP in price. BTC Price pop was probably somewhat effected by the Pandemic. Notice there are basically 3 UPTHRUSTS. They look slightly different but they also look alot alike. See charts for the details on the similarities. The peaks of the 1st UPTHRUST were obviously different in AMZN compared to BTC but otherwise the timing and chart pattern is almost identical. Even the slope of the TL (Yellow Lines) and timing of all the Peaks is eerily similar. What was going on at that time with the Fed?? You guessed it RATE HIKES!! Three to be exact!
But the overall Nasdaq continued to tread higher topping out between March-April 2000 while AMZN started to top out January 2000. People said it had no merit and expected it to die many times. After all AMZN didn't make any money (sound Familiar Peter Schiff?...). AMZN Topped and fell for about 20 months before reaching its "Basing Structure" overhead resistance around $5. That base became the floor.
If we assume that BTC is trading 24/7 unlike AMZN we can reasonably assume the bottom will happen slightly quicker like maybe 14-18 months. The "Basing Structure" prior to BTC POP in price in 2020 had overhead resistance around $12500. AMZN Floated around $5-$14 for most all of 2001 in another "Basing Structure" of sideways chop.
Will history CONTINUE to Repeat??? Tell me what you think and comment below.
Trade what you see...
AMAZON Chart for Comparison
Nota
Very good video. In particular Gareth Soloway AGREES and came to the EXACT SAME CONCLUSION as I did. Watch video from 23 min -25 min where he discusses this scenario.youtu.be/UTjVuiaNDOI
Nota
Most Likely we retest 32K before bouncing higher. SELLING Rallies here.Nota
Is it me or does something feel like its about to BREAK?. The charts just keep getting uglier to me. Maybe when the markets open tonight this will change but right now there seems like little positivity to see in charts.I would love nothing more than for crypto to become BULLISH again but I just dont see it. All I see are trend lines and Bear Flags being broken and rejections off resistance zone.
ON EVERY SINGLE TIME FRAME.
Trade what you see.
Nota
Someone PLEASE explain what is BULLISH about this chart. I realize its a 4HR chart but it shows the recent POP to 
46K is about to fail miserably. Something's about to BREAK. In my opinion.
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