Bitcoin: Is this the bottom?

14 nov 2018

Following the events of the last few hours, everyone is trying to determine whether this is the bottom on Bitcoin or there is more selling to come. We will use a simple cross examination to locate a probable bottom of this bearish cycle.

As we have done on a previous study (tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ChdbegHP-Bitcoin-Comparing-bear-markets-Similarities-and-projection/) where we have studied the similarities of BTC's two bear cycles (2018/2019 and 2014/2015), we are using the 2014/ 2015 bear cycle as a model to project the behavior of the current one.

This shows that we are currently close to a bottom but not just there yet. The 2014/ 2015 bear cycle lasted for 410 days from Top to Bottom and lost roughly 86% in value. This indicates that the bottom of the 2018/ 2019 bear cycle will be roughly around 2,600 close to 28 January 2019.

So to answer the question, Bitcoin should lose another 50% of its value in the next 75 days if the 2014/ 2015 candle sequence is repeated. That should be the bottom after which a very long consolidation/ recovery period will follow.



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