RLinda ! BTCUSD-> The price is approaching support. What's next?

4 mar 2023

Bitcoin is declining after updating 9-month highs to $25270 and then forming a false breakdown. People are screaming for a crash, but if you look at the situation, things are currently developing as part of a correction. What is going on and what should we expect from the flagship in the future?


The situation in the screenshot:
Why the fall will continue:
The major cryptocurrency fell to a more than two-week low on Friday and has remained below $24K for most of this week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total cryptocurrency market is now 1.03T, down 3.8% from Thursday.

After the fall and false breakdown of the uptrend support line, the price does not make a deep pullback, but begins to consolidate at the edge of the range.

At the moment under the pressure of fundamental factors the price has no strength for a pullback, the probability of breaking the line and reaching lower price values (21450 and 21000 area) is high.

Regulatory update:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise the discount rate to a higher level than forecast late last year, given still hot economic data pointing to continued inflationary pressures.
  
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he remains "deeply skeptical" about the utility of cryptocurrencies in the real world.
  
• Two Republican lawmakers opposed an April SEC bulletin designed to control how regulated financial institutions account for cryptocurrencies.
  
• Three U.S. senators called on cryptocurrency exchange Binance to disclose its balance sheets, raising serious doubts about its compliance policies.
  
• Nishad Singh, FTX's former chief technology officer, agreed to plead guilty to fraud charges. In addition, the SEC and CFTC have filed separate charges against him.
  
• Network Bitcoin Activity. Despite strict market rules, there has been a surge in network activity, especially in the U.S. Analyst firm Glassnode released a report Monday showing positive sentiment among investors in the first cryptocurrency.
  

Most likely, bitcoin will enter the area below the support level (rising dotted line) to test the Fibonacci area at 0.382, the previous retest did not bring much results.
During the rebound period, there is some pretty bad news for bitcoin, related to the regulation of the US economy and statements by some important people.
Therefore, there is a strong possibility that the price might retest the 0.5 Fibo and 0.618 area, and also a retest of the 200 SMA when the two SMAs crossed, which is a strong enough bullish signal.

If you look closely, you can see a broad and rather complex Head & Shoulders pattern, but it is not over yet. At the moment (probably) there is a stage of formation of the right shoulder, which can peak near the Fibonacci levels of 0.5 and 0.618.
A break of the base of the figure, namely resistance at 25250, could cause quite a strong surge of liquidity and bullish momentum towards 31400.

Regards, R. Linda!

5 mar 2023

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6 mar 2023

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