Is BTC heading to $45k?

We had nearly a year of bullish trading on an ascending trend line from October of 2023 to July 2024 where we broke through that support. By the time we broke that ascending trendline we had already had a descending channel above that trend line since March that appeared to be the path BTC was tracking. We also slightly breached that descending channel with a wick when we broke our ascending trendline.

We ran back up to the top of our now descending channel, up above the previous ascending trendline which gave us a slight opportunity to reclaim it but we didnt, we fell even harder, breaking that descending channel that had already seen the candles touch channel walls 7 times to that point, it was a nasty wick down to about 49k. The problem is, wicks are seldom benign. If we look at the potential descending trend the last two pull backs gave us, we see the possibility that we are forming a new descending channel even more drastic than the one we had since March. And now we have our old ascending line playing resistance coupled with order book pressure (based on entry/exit volume) which seems to be giving us a double resistance that we will be unlikely to break.

if resistance holds here which I think it is quite likely to do, we will probably see a pretty good sell off over the next week or few. Given we have touched top and bottom of this new descending channel 4 times if this resistance holds (confirming this channel), then we are likely to see the price drop to bottom of channel, which means about a 45k BTC in the not too distant future. You can see I mark channel support with green lines and channel resistance with red lines.

I know it sounds weird to say this but i feel a lot of times the charts leads the news, like we know there is a 20k pullback likely coming, so probably we will get some bad news for crypto soon that will fuel that descent. Usually its thought that news causes the charts to decline or run up, not the other way around but sometimes these things make you stop and consider the possibility otherwise.

Mostly this post is to tell you to be vigilant, also if you are trading alts you know when BTC crashes, usually Alts crash harder so even if you are not trading BTC, you should still be watching it. I would be very cautious going long on anything crypto at the moment and at least until we see bottom of descending channel, even then, the market is poised to give gains to the short term traders not the long term holders.

This is not investment advice, you should always do your own research.