30.01.2021

30 gen 2021

Market structure and price action is simply bearish. Circled wick was the Elon pump.

On-chain is extremely bullish.

Dilemma.

Longs above 35k daily close or at 0.5 & 0.618 fibs.

30 gen 2021

Nota

I'm concerned about the fractal being very similar to 2017 & 2019 tops. But still, the on-chain data suggests the bottom is already in. 50/50 in my opinion.

I expect 100k by the end of 2021, but wouldn't be surprised to see some serious fuckery to fully reset the market before moving up. Bitcoin did 11x in 10 months, without >20% corrections. Dropping all the way to 0.5-0.618 fibs would definitely wipe out a lot of traders and weak hands.

30.01. EXPOSURE:
50% BTC, 15% ETH/LINK, 35% cash.

30 gen 2021

Nota

Reasoning behind 65% exposure despite 50/50 chances for deeper correction:

1. Market cycle: I believe we are still in early to mid stages of this bull market. I try to minimise fine-tuning long positions during bull markets.
2. Institutional demand: It almost became a meme during 2017-2018. This time it's for real, it can be seen through on-chain analysis. We also see bullish news of new institutional players entering the market on a weekly basis.
3. Retail investors: I think we might be in the late stages of the bull market in traditional markets. The amount of high-risk gamblers in the market is at all time highs. Robinhood traders, Tesla fanboys, lately WallStreetBets. The degens have made a killing, and I believe a lot of this money will flow into crypto this year.

The potential demand is just too explosive for me to keep exposure under 50%.

30 gen 2021

Nota

Having hard time trying to figure out where I'd buy back, if the price starts moving up. I feel the original 'daily close above 35k' might still be in no man's land.

Acceptance above 37k (and the 0.618 fib [42k-29k]) could be smarter - smaller probability of being made a fool by another liquidity grab.

Hmm.

30 gen 2021

Nota

More thoughts about the possible fuckery.

Another form of fuckery is time. Rather than Bitcoin to make a massive unexpected move, we could see a prolonged range. I'm guilty of often being impatient and way too wired to binary thinking. "It's x or y." That's not how markets tend to work.

Everyone is at the edge of their seats, screaming a narrative:
"Bottom is in, it's going to 50k!" or "We are heading back to $20-25k!"

You can feel the adrenaline.

Imagine we form a 5-10k range for the next 4 months, with multiple fake-outs both directions.

3 feb 2021

Nota

I added BTC & ETH exposure at 35.5k and $1500.

Exposure is 84% :

60% BTC
16% USDT
11% ETH
8% ADA
6% LINK

3 feb 2021

Nota

Not feeling too confident with my current position. Longs are over leveraging on a rapid rate, and it feels like everything under $39-40k could still be just ranging.

I also have hard time figuring out where my stops should be. Or whether I should just stay long, log off and come back in a month.

I guess I'll just play the daily 20 or 30MA's, and accept the possibility of getting chopped to death. Above 20MA: long, below 20MA: hedge.

3 feb 2021

Nota

(^ at the time of writing, price is ~36k)