Bitcoin (BTC) - Health report on Daily (OBV trends)
Bitcoin Daily chart is the one showing greatest signs of a stall or retrace for me currently. Weekly is still overall bullish, but daily is showing volume grinding at a key level, lagging behind price. Other signals here are the MACD histogram (D) which is trading as high as it has all year and declining (though we are yet to see a typical second effort on the histogram). RSI is trading very high, and struggling to follow price to higher highs.
Importantly, a daily close green (if we do in approx 30mins) will have OBV signal the first possible break of the key level it has been testing for the past two months, though it is doing so from a place of relative over extension on MACD and RSI indicators. We may see an exhaustion top here before a pull back. The price preceding volume through this range on the daily hints that we may need to check back into some lower price supports (57.5, 54, 50k) before another push up. As OBV upward trend breaks from this level of extension often see a knock back down in the following 24hrs. If we see volume hold above this level in the coming days that will be a strong sign of confirmation and continuation, even if we see some pull back in price.
The simple trend lines on the MACD and the lack of a typical second effort on the histogram might hint at another push up before some pull back, but more immediately are signs of momentum slowing. Ultimately, OBV on the daily is currently showing bearish divergence, compared with its overall bullish momentum for the past 3 months.
Ideally, I want to see a ranging consolidation above the 60k, with possible wicks below, while RSI and MACD reset bullishly and we make another push up. A deeper pull back would see us revisiting the 54-50k range (with possible wicks down into the 40s), but I would not be alone in seeing this range as a great buy opportunity. If we see it trade below this range on the daily, that's not good
For LTF signals of possible retrace, keep an eye on the 4H OBV trend (see my other analysis) and see how it confirms any signs of pull back on RSI and MACD
Importantly, a daily close green (if we do in approx 30mins) will have OBV signal the first possible break of the key level it has been testing for the past two months, though it is doing so from a place of relative over extension on MACD and RSI indicators. We may see an exhaustion top here before a pull back. The price preceding volume through this range on the daily hints that we may need to check back into some lower price supports (57.5, 54, 50k) before another push up. As OBV upward trend breaks from this level of extension often see a knock back down in the following 24hrs. If we see volume hold above this level in the coming days that will be a strong sign of confirmation and continuation, even if we see some pull back in price.
The simple trend lines on the MACD and the lack of a typical second effort on the histogram might hint at another push up before some pull back, but more immediately are signs of momentum slowing. Ultimately, OBV on the daily is currently showing bearish divergence, compared with its overall bullish momentum for the past 3 months.
Ideally, I want to see a ranging consolidation above the 60k, with possible wicks below, while RSI and MACD reset bullishly and we make another push up. A deeper pull back would see us revisiting the 54-50k range (with possible wicks down into the 40s), but I would not be alone in seeing this range as a great buy opportunity. If we see it trade below this range on the daily, that's not good
For LTF signals of possible retrace, keep an eye on the 4H OBV trend (see my other analysis) and see how it confirms any signs of pull back on RSI and MACD
